Experimental Design
The trial is a household-level randomized controlled trial with a 2×2 factorial design. In August 2025, 1,200 households enrolled in the SOS Children's Villages family-strengthening program across four districts in Malawi were assigned with equal probability to one of four arms: (1) the income-generating activity (IGA) package, (2) IGA plus parental training, (3) an unconditional cash transfer of equivalent value, and (4) cash plus parental training, giving 300 households per arm. Randomization was stratified by district and by whether the household had any primary-school-aged child out of school at baseline (eight strata), using a pre-specified seed and a stratified randomization routine.
The design supports two comparisons. Study A compares the IGA package to cash (600 versus 600 households), pooling across the parental training arms. Study B evaluates parental training (600 versus 600 households), pooling across the economic-support arms, and examines whether its effects depend on the form of economic support.
Baseline data were collected in 2024 by SOS before randomization and cover all children under 18 in each household. The household sample is all 1,200 randomized households. The child sample is children in these households aged 17 or younger at endline (16 or younger at the implementation survey), with eligibility determined by the age recorded at each survey. The baseline masterlist identifies approximately 3,285 such children; this is approximate because masterlist ages are noisy. Implementation-survey child records whose recorded code is missing, ambiguous, or inconsistent with the masterlist (sex or age) will be matched to the masterlist before analysis, using other survey information (e.g. sex, age, enumerator, and survey timing). The endline survey will record the current age and status (interviewed, absent, moved, aged 18 or older, deceased, refused) of every child in the sample, to measure attrition. Follow-up data are collected in two rounds: an implementation survey in April 2026, after delivery of the cash and IGA support and before parental training began, and an endline survey planned for spring 2027. Each round includes a caregiver survey and an individual survey or assessment for each child, with children aged six and older interviewed directly where present and assenting. Longer-run surveys will be planned conditional on funding.
We will estimate OLS regressions of each outcome on an IGA indicator (the cash arm is the reference category), separately by survey round.
Household-level controls: stratification bin, parental-training assignment, baseline annual income (with a missing indicator), baseline number of earners, and the number of boys and of girls in the child sample according to the baseline masterlist. Child controls: age, age band (as in the heterogeneity analysis), gender, and baseline (2024) measures of the outcome, where available, and of primary outcomes 1 and 4, each with a missing indicator. Heterogeneity by child gender and age bands (0–5, 6–12, 13–17). Child age and gender, for covariates and heterogeneity, are as recorded at the implementation survey, or at endline for children without an implementation-survey record.
Standard errors clustered by household, and randomization inference p-values (10,000 replications, re-randomizing with the original assignment mechanism).
We will conduct further exploratory analyses, including to examine implementation fidelity and mechanisms, to test for robustness, and to provide greater descriptive detail.