The Effect of Peers' Realized Earnings on Investment Decisions

Last registered on August 27, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Effect of Peers' Realized Earnings on Investment Decisions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019483
Initial registration date
August 23, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 27, 2026, 12:23 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Halis Sak
Affiliation
Shenzhen University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Gergely Horvath
PI Affiliation
Duke Kunshan University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-01
End date
2026-12-15
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Building on the seminal work of Bursztyn et al. (2014), which disentangled social learning from social utility in peer effects, we investigate a distinct channel of social influence: the role of peers' realized earnings as a reference point for investment decisions. While their study established that peers' possession of an asset increases utility, we argue that this dynamic reverses when the peer has already captured significant gains
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Horvath, Gergely and Halis Sak. 2026. "The Effect of Peers' Realized Earnings on Investment Decisions." AEA RCT Registry. August 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19483-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-21
Intervention End Date
2026-11-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Stock Choice – The stock selected by the participant in each decision period (Stock A, B, or C). This is used to measure whether the participant chooses the same stock as the peer they observed (imitation) or a different stock (avoidance).

Investment Return – The realized financial return (in Points) from the stock chosen in each period. This measures the financial outcome of the participant's investment decision.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Experimental Design (Public)

This is a laboratory experiment with a between-subjects design. Participants are university students who make a series of investment decisions across multiple rounds. In each decision period, participants choose one stock from three available options, based on historical price charts.

The experiment consists of 6 treatment conditions:

Baseline (No Peer Information) – Participants make investment decisions without observing any peer information.

DKU students (no peer information)

SZU students (no peer information)

Same-School Peer Treatment – Participants observe the investment choices and returns of a peer from the same university.

DKU student observing a DKU peer

SZU student observing an SZU peer

Mixed-School Peer Treatment – Participants observe the investment choices and returns of a peer from a different university.

DKU student observing an SZU peer

SZU student observing a DKU peer

In the peer treatments, participants observe a previous participant's stock choice and realized return from the previous round before making their own decision in the current round. The peer's performance is manipulated (high vs. low return) to test for imitation and competitive avoidance effects.

The main outcome variables are stock choice (whether the participant chooses the same stock as the observed peer) and investment return. Post-experiment surveys collect data on risk preferences, altruism, and demographic characteristics.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computerized random assignment using experimental software. Participants are randomly allocated to treatment conditions at the start of each session. Peer performance (high vs. low return) is also randomly assigned.
Randomization Unit
Individual participant level. No cluster randomization (e.g., by session or school). Peer performance is also individually randomized.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
40 per treatment
Sample size: planned number of observations
240 participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
40 participants in each of 6 treatment arms: Baseline DKU (40), Baseline SZU (40), Same-School DKU-DKU (40), Same-School SZU-SZU (40), Mixed-School DKU-SZU (40), Mixed-School SZU-DKU (40).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Duke Kunshan University
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-31
IRB Approval Number
2026GH143
IRB Name
Shenzhen University School of Fintech Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-25
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan