Local Market Structure and Farmgate Price Capture: Evidence from Mozambique's Cashew Sector

Last registered on September 21, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Local Market Structure and Farmgate Price Capture: Evidence from Mozambique's Cashew Sector
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019495
Initial registration date
September 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 21, 2026, 9:18 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Ekta Joshi
Affiliation
FAO
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-21
End date
2027-07-31
Keywords
Agriculture
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Cashew is one of Mozambique's most important agricultural export crops and a significant source of income for rural households, supporting roughly 1.5 million smallholder farming families concentrated in the northern provinces. Farmgate prices vary widely across locations and marketing channels, and farmers often sell without timely knowledge of the IAM reference price announced ahead of each harvest season, which may limit their ability to assess and negotiate the offers they receive.
This study uses a village-level randomized controlled trial to measure whether providing smallholder cashew producers in Nampula Province with reference price information ahead of the selling season raises the farmgate prices they receive. Approximately 500 cashew-producing households across at least 60 villages complete an in-person baseline survey before the campaign, covering sales and prices received in the previous season, current price expectations, marketing channels and buyer relationships, and household characteristics. Villages are then randomly assigned to receive the IAM reference price via SMS, delivered shortly after it is announced for the season, or to a comparison group that receives no such information. A follow-up phone survey after the selling campaign records the prices households actually received, along with the quantities, timing, and channels through which they sold.
The main hypothesis is that limited access to timely price information constrains farmers' bargaining position at the point of sale, and that households receiving the reference price will therefore obtain higher farmgate prices than comparable households that do not. The analysis will estimate intention-to-treat effects on prices received, accounting for household and village characteristics. The study will generate evidence on whether access to price information raises the prices smallholder producers receive, with direct implications for the design of low-cost measures to improve price transmission in the cashew value chain.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Joshi, Ekta. 2026. "Local Market Structure and Farmgate Price Capture: Evidence from Mozambique's Cashew Sector." AEA RCT Registry. September 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19495-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-10-06
Intervention End Date
2026-11-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Farmgate price received per kilogram of raw cashew nuts sold during the 2026/27 campaign.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Price per kilogram in meticais received by the household for raw cashew sold during the 2026/27 campaign, reported in the follow-up phone survey. Where a household sold on more than one occasion or to more than one buyer, the primary measure is the price received in the transaction accounting for the largest quantity sold. Total sales revenue divided by total quantity sold serves as a consistency check on reported unit prices. Prices reported in local units are converted to meticais per kilogram using conversion factors established during fieldwork preparation. The outcome is defined only for households reporting at least one sale during the campaign.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Quantity of raw cashew sold and total sales revenue; the manner in which the sale price was established; buyer type and point of sale; timing of sales within the campaign; and awareness of the reference price and the channel through which it was learned.
Buyer type
Point of sale
Quantity sold and total sales revenue for the campaign
Timing of sale relative to the season
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Whether the household sold any cashew during the campaign, the quantity sold, and total sales revenue conditional on selling, capture whether information affects market participation and marketing volume, as well as unit price. Price formation is recorded as whether the buyer announced the price, the household proposed it, it was negotiated, or it referenced an official price, testing whether information changes the mechanism of price setting rather than only its level. Buyer type, registration status and point of sale capture whether households shift marketing channel. Timing of sales within the campaign captures whether households delay selling. Awareness of the reference price and the channel through which it was learned is measured in both arms: in the treatment arm it measures treatment reach, and in the comparison arm it measures independent diffusion of the price from the study's own treated villages and from other sources.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study is a village-level randomized controlled trial. Districts and postos administrativos in Nampula Province are selected purposively to ensure suitable study conditions. Within these, villages are randomly assigned to a treatment group, whose households receive the season's reference price for raw cashew by SMS, or to a comparison group, whose households receive no such message. Eligible cashew-producing households are then randomly selected within each selected village. The study covers approximately 500 households across about 70 villages.
Data collection proceeds in two rounds. An in-person baseline household survey is conducted ahead of the selling season, before any information is disseminated, and includes recall of sales and prices received in the previous season, as well as current price expectations, marketing channels, and household characteristics. The SMS dissemination is delivered immediately after the reference price is announced for the season. A follow-up phone survey after the selling campaign records the prices households received and marketing information.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted in office by computer by the study team. Assignment takes place after baseline data collection is complete and before the reference price is announced, using baseline data for stratification. Field staff conducting the baseline survey are not informed of assignment status, which is determined only after their work is complete.
Randomization Unit
Village. Treatment is assigned at the village level to avoid diffusion of price information between treated and untreated households within the same village.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Clusters: 65-70 villages.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Observations: approximately 500 households.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
By arm: 35 villages and approximately 250 households in each of the treatment and comparison groups.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan