Experimental Design
The study uses a two-stage clustered randomized design.
At Stage 1, each of the 12 probabilistically assigned institutions contributes a grade 4 cohort and a grade 7 cohort. These institutions were assigned to one of two configurations: RULER in grade 4 and comparison in grade 7, or comparison in grade 4 and RULER in grade 7. Two additional institutions had their assignments fixed ex ante because of documented feasibility constraints. These two institutions participate in data collection but are excluded from the primary Stage-1 causal analysis.
Stage-1 randomization used a prespecified constrained assignment procedure. The institution and class rosters, assignment protocol, randomization code, and SHA-256 hashes were frozen and deposited with the co-investigators on July 5, 2026, before the official draw. Of 162 structurally admissible institutional allocations, 41 satisfied the prespecified balance criterion, and one allocation was selected uniformly from this acceptance set on July 8, 2026, using a reproducible seed derived mechanically from the frozen roster.
At Stage 2, RULER classes meeting prespecified technological and operational eligibility criteria will be randomly assigned at approximately a 1:1 ratio to RULER only or RULER plus the digital decision-making activity. Eligibility will be defined using criteria that do not depend on study outcomes and will be assessed and frozen for both grade cohorts before the Stage-2 randomization. A versioned addendum filed before that randomization will report the eligible roster, blocking rules, exact conditional assignment probabilities, and the procedures required to combine the two assignment stages. The two institutions fixed at Stage 1 may contribute to the randomized Stage-2 comparison if their RULER classes meet the eligibility criteria.
The primary Stage-1 estimand is the intention-to-treat effect of the embedded RULER-only strategy relative to the comparison condition in the frozen cohort of 12 randomized institutions. RULER-only observations arise both from RULER-assigned classes that are not eligible for the additional activity and from eligible RULER-assigned classes randomized not to receive it. This contrast will therefore be estimated using the exact joint assignment probabilities implied by the 41-allocation Stage-1 acceptance set and the Stage-2 blocked randomization; it will not be estimated as an unweighted comparison of the observed groups.
The pooled Stage-1 estimand will assign equal weight to the student-average grade-specific effects for grades 4 and 7. Grade-specific effects will also be reported.
The primary Stage-2 contrast will compare assignment to RULER plus the digital decision-making activity with assignment to RULER only among eligible RULER classes. Its primary outcome will be the SELIS domain corresponding to the activity’s prespecified focal competence, measured at the common student post-test in both Stage-2 arms. The focal competence, matched SELIS domain, and Stage-2 outcome-analysis procedures will be frozen in the versioned addendum before the Stage-2 randomization.
Within-activity choices, response times, and operational logs will be observed only for students who participate in the activity within classes assigned to it. They will support prespecified within-arm analyses of their correspondence with the matched SELIS self-report measure and will not be treated as between-arm causal outcomes.
A key policy-relevant secondary estimand will compare assignment to the overall RULER-centered pathway, comprising RULER only or RULER plus the activity as generated by the Stage-2 design, with the comparison condition. A secondary total-package comparison of RULER plus the activity with the comparison condition will be defined in the Stage-2 addendum.
Analyses including all 14 institutions for the Stage-1 contrast will be reported as supportive and will not form part of the primary randomized causal analysis.
The frozen July 2026 class roster defines the confirmatory Stage-1 cohort. Any subsequently activated sections invited to participate in measurement will constitute an extended measurement stratum and will be included only in secondary or sensitivity analyses.
The initial student measurement is scheduled after initial teacher training but before the planned student-facing implementation of RULER. The post-test is planned for late May 2027, after implementation of the additional digital activity. The follow-up is planned during the 2027/28 school year.
The comparison grade does not receive direct RULER implementation during the study year. Because RULER and comparison grades belong to the same institution, indirect between-grade exposure will be documented and considered when interpreting the estimates.
All main estimates will follow assignment, irrespective of actual implementation or participation. Post-assignment measures of implementation intensity will not be used to redefine the primary treatment groups. Detailed estimation, inference, missing-data, multiplicity, and covariate-adjustment procedures will be specified in a versioned analysis plan before the research team accesses the corresponding post-treatment outcome data. Estimation and inference for each randomized contrast will respect its corresponding assignment mechanism, including the Stage-1 constrained randomization and, where relevant, the Stage-2 blocked randomization.
Implementation resources will be measured prospectively to support a separately prespecified cost-effectiveness analysis linked to the trial’s effectiveness estimates.
Within classes assigned to receive RULER, teacher-completed ratings of students’ observable social-emotional competence are planned as part of implementation monitoring and descriptive multi-method triangulation. These ratings are not included in the prespecified confirmatory impact-outcome family. The instrument and edition, administration schedule, rater assignment and continuity rules, and scoring procedures will be frozen and time-stamped before the first rating wave. The initial rating wave is expected in late October or early November 2026, after teachers have had sufficient opportunity to observe students in regular classroom settings.