Expectations about Marriage and Childbearing

Last registered on September 21, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Expectations about Marriage and Childbearing
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019564
Initial registration date
September 15, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 21, 2026, 9:39 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Yoon Jo
Affiliation
Texas A&M University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Suanna Oh
PI Affiliation
Paris School of Economics
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PI Name
Kwang Hwan Kim
PI Affiliation
Yonsei University
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PI Name
Myungkyu Shim
PI Affiliation
Yonsei University
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PI Name
Taekyung Kim
PI Affiliation
Bank of Korea
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PI Name
Inkyung Yoo
PI Affiliation
Bank of Korea
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PI Name
Myunghwan Lee
PI Affiliation
New York University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-16
End date
2027-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Labor
Additional Keywords
subjective expectations; fertility; marriage timing; information provision; belief updating
JEL code(s)
J12, J13, D83, D84, C93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how information about fertility and about the time it takes to form a family affects Koreans' expectations and plans regarding marriage and childbearing. In a nationally representative online survey of adults aged 19–59, we elicit expectations about the timing of marriage and births, recalled expectations from early adulthood, beliefs about age-specific fecundity, and partner-search behavior. Respondents under 50 are randomly assigned to one of three arms: a control group receiving unrelated health information; an information arm receiving statistics on age-specific conception and miscarriage probabilities; and a planning arm that, based on the respondent's own fertility goals, computes and displays the ages by which they would need to meet a partner, marry, and begin trying to conceive, given the durations realized by recent cohorts. We measure effects on beliefs, expectations, stated timing plans, and intentions, immediately after the treatment and again in a follow-up survey.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Jo, Yoon et al. 2026. "Expectations about Marriage and Childbearing." AEA RCT Registry. September 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19564-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents under age 50 are randomly assigned to one of three arms embedded in an online survey. A control arm receives unrelated information on adult health. A second arm receives information on how conception, IVF success, and miscarriage probabilities vary with age. A third arm goes through a personalized planning exercise that, based on the respondent's own fertility goals and on durations realized by recent cohorts, shows the ages by which they would need to meet a partner, marry, and begin trying to conceive. All arms then answer the same post-treatment questions.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-16
Intervention End Date
2027-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
For the descriptive analysis, we analyze (1) subjective probabilistic expectations of marrying and of having a (first or second) child; (2) recalled expectations about timing of marriage and births and actual realized timing; and (3) reasons behind current expectations or any deviations from past expectations.

After information treatments, we examine posterior beliefs about age-specific conception/miscarriage probabilities as well as updated intentions and expectations regarding short-term prospects of marriage and fertility. We examine heterogeneous impacts by baseline beliefs, fertility preferences, and age.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Individual-level randomized information experiment embedded in an online survey of a nationally representative quota sample of Korean adults aged 19–59. Eligible respondents are assigned with equal probability to a control arm or one of two treatment arms. We compare post-treatment beliefs, expectations, plans, and intentions, using pre-treatment measures of the same objects as covariates, and re-contact respondents in a follow-up survey approximately 3-6 months later.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer-generated randomization by the online survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
The survey sample consists of Korean adults of ages 19-59, stratified by region, gender and age brackets, as follows. Age 19-29: 2500 Age 30-39: 2500 Age 40-49: 2000 Age 50-59: 1000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Information treatments are only administered to those under age 50 (7,000 subjects) with 1/3 probability, stratified by gender and age brackets, as follows.
T0: 2,333
T1: 2,333
T2: 2,334
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Paris School of Economics
IRB Approval Date
2026-04-01
IRB Approval Number
2025-025
Analysis Plan