Soft Power Erosion and Misperceived Social Norms: Evidence from the Greenland Crisis (Survey 1, Denmark)

Last registered on September 28, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Soft Power Erosion and Misperceived Social Norms: Evidence from the Greenland Crisis (Survey 1, Denmark)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019593
Initial registration date
September 20, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 28, 2026, 8:42 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Adrien Dautheville
Affiliation
Norwegian School of Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Paolo Falco
PI Affiliation
University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Sarah Zaccagni
PI Affiliation
Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Business Economics
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Tarek Jaber-Lopez
PI Affiliation
Spanish National Research Council
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-21
End date
2028-09-21
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
survey experiment, soft power, social norms, economic retaliation
JEL code(s)
C93, D83, D91, F51, G11
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Since January 2025, the United States has repeatedly demanded that Denmark cede Greenland, alongside tariffs on European goods, statements questioning NATO Article 5 commitments, and withdrawal from multilateral agreements. This pre-registration covers an online survey experiment fielded to 400 Danish adults. Respondents are randomly assigned to read either a factual compilation of recent news on the Greenland crisis and US unilateralism, or a length-matched placebo text on international sport. Both arms then complete an identical outcome battery: an incentivised divestment decision with real monetary consequences, stated boycott and petition behaviour, two injunctive norm items, incentivised second-order beliefs about the same five behaviours, and an emotion and concern module.

The study estimates the intention-to-treat effect of salience on economic retaliation, and measures the gap between first-order behaviour and second-order beliefs about peers.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dautheville, Adrien et al. 2026. "Soft Power Erosion and Misperceived Social Norms: Evidence from the Greenland Crisis (Survey 1, Denmark)." AEA RCT Registry. September 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19593-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents are randomly assigned, with equal probability, to one of two conditions presented immediately after consent and before any outcome is measured.

Salience arm (n = 200): respondents read a short factual compilation of recent news items covering the US demand that Denmark cede Greenland and the refusal to rule out economic or military pressure, unauthorised US military flights over Greenlandic airspace, US tariffs on European goods, US withdrawal from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, and US statements questioning NATO Article 5 commitments. The text is presented explicitly as a curated compilation of news items and not as a statement by the survey provider.

Control arm (n = 200): respondents read a length-matched placebo text in the same format covering recent international sport.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-21
Intervention End Date
2026-09-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Incentivised divestment; boycott of US-branded products; support for a pension-fund divestment petition; injunctive norm on US consumption; injunctive norm on US investment; gap between first-order behaviour and second-order beliefs
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
negative emotion scales (anger, contempt, disgust, fear, sadness); support for government transfer to Greenland; expected three-month return on US equities.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A two-arm, individually randomised online survey experiment fielded to a quota-sampled panel of 400 Danish adults aged 18 and over. Respondents are randomised at survey entry to a salience condition or a length-matched placebo condition, then complete an identical post-treatment battery: an incentivised divestment decision, stated boycott and petition behaviour, two injunctive norm items, incentivised second-order beliefs about the same five behaviours, an emotion battery, and a concern and expectations module. Two tasks carry real monetary consequences. Median completion time is approximately 15 minutes.

The design supports two objects of interest: the intention-to-treat effect of salience on economic retaliation, and the within-sample gap between first-order behaviour and second-order beliefs about peers.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomisation is performed automatically by the survey platform operated by YouGov Denmark, at the point of survey entry. Each respondent is assigned to one of the two arms with equal probability by the platform's built-in pseudo-random allocation, within the sampling quotas for age, gender, education and region. No member of the research team is involved in allocation, and assignment is recorded in the delivered dataset as a single indicator variable.
Randomization Unit
Individual respondent.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
400 individuals (the design is not clustered; the unit of randomisation and of observation is the individual respondent).
Sample size: planned number of observations
400 individuals.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 respondents in the salience arm; 200 respondents in the control (placebo) arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
German Association for Experimental Economic Research e.V.
IRB Approval Date
2026-08-04
IRB Approval Number
A5zrU1Y1
Analysis Plan