Adaptive Inference

Last registered on September 21, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Adaptive Inference
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019596
Initial registration date
September 04, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 21, 2026, 6:56 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Tashfeen Saeed
Affiliation
Cornell University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-07
End date
2026-10-15
Keywords
Behavior, Lab
Additional Keywords
Beliefs, Belief updating, Bayesian updating, Likelihood judgments, Posterior beliefs, Information processing, Probabilistic reasoning, Laboratory experiment, Cognitive Economics, Cognition
JEL code(s)
D83, C91
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines whether recent exposure to different types of probabilistic information affects subsequent belief updating. Participants complete a standard bookbag-and-poker-chip task in which they infer which of two bags generated an observed sample of colored balls. Before the main test trials, participants are randomly assigned to different adaptation conditions that vary the distribution of sample proportions they observe. The study tests whether this prior exposure changes how responsive participants are to new evidence and whether it shifts beliefs at the Bayesian decision boundary.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Saeed, Tashfeen. 2026. "Adaptive Inference." AEA RCT Registry. September 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19596-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants are randomly assigned to one of several adaptation conditions that differ in the distribution of sample proportions they observe during an initial adaptation phase. They are then randomly assigned to one of two prior-probability environments (symmetric or asymmetric) before completing a common set of test trials. The intervention therefore varies participants' recent exposure to probabilistic information while holding the test task constant across conditions.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-07
Intervention End Date
2026-10-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome is participants' choice of which bag they believe generated the observed sample (Bag A, Bag B, or Equally Likely) on the test trials.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a belief-updating task based on a standard bookbag-and-poker-chip paradigm. Participants complete multiple independent rounds in which there are two bags containing different proportions of colored balls. In each round, one bag is selected according to stated prior probabilities, a sample of balls is drawn with replacement, and participants indicate which bag they believe is more likely to have generated the sample.

Participants are randomly assigned to one of several adaptation conditions that differ in the distribution of sample proportions observed during an initial adaptation phase. Participants are also assigned to one of two prior-probability environments: one with equal prior probabilities over the two bags and one with unequal prior probabilities. Following the adaptation phase, all participants complete a common set of test trials within their assigned prior environment.

The primary analysis examines whether exposure to different distributions of sample proportions affects how responsive participants are to new evidence during the test phase. Additional analyses examine whether adaptation shifts choices at the Bayesian decision boundary. All questions are framed hypothetically, with probabilities fully determined by the stated bag compositions, prior probabilities, and observed samples.

Additional details on the experimental procedures, analysis plan, and exclusion criteria are provided in the uploaded Pre-Analysis Plan.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Participants are randomly assigned to one of seven experimental conditions using Qualtrics' built-in randomization features.
Randomization Unit
Individual participants
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1050 participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
1050 participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
150 participants in each of seven treatment groups
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Cornell University Office of Research Integrity and Assurance
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-29
IRB Approval Number
IRB0148965
Analysis Plan

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