Abstract
Our study examines how Russian citizens evaluate political candidates under conditions of war and political repression. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 substantially transformed Russia’s domestic political environment, raising concerns that conventional surveys may overstate support for government and wartime policies because respondents face social and legal risks when expressing dissent. To address these challenges, the study employs a forced-choice conjoint experiment in which respondents evaluate pairs of hypothetical State Duma candidates whose profiles vary randomly across eight demographic and policy attributes. These include age, gender, occupation, positions on the war and its termination, internet and social-media restrictions, migration, budget priorities, and mobilization.
The experiment estimates the relative importance of competing wartime and domestic policy preferences while reducing the salience of sensitive political questions. The study also investigates drivers of electoral turnout in Russia, distinguishing between abstention arising from candidate similarity (indifference) and dissatisfaction with the available candidates (alienation). Pre-registered hypotheses focus on preferences toward mobilization, war termination, veteran candidates, migration restrictions, social spending, and information controls, as well as differences across media consumption, age, gender, and education.