Expectations in Transition: Decarbonization, Macroeconomic Beliefs, and Firm Decisions

Respondents are randomly assigned to one of four conditions:

1. Control: Respondents receive no additional information.

2. Emissions target information: Respondents are informed that the New Zealand government aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, excluding biogenic methane, by 2050. The information includes an explanation of net zero.

3. Target credibility and achievability information: Respondents receive information stating that New Zealand’s long-term net emissions targets are established in law and that official government modeling indicates that the country is on track to meet its long-term net emissions targets.

4. Carbon-price information: Respondents are informed that New Zealand’s official government emissions projections assume an ETS carbon price of approximately NZ$80 per tonne of CO₂-equivalent by 2030.

2026-06-16

2026-11-07

We have three classes of primary outcomes of interest:

A) Transition-related expectations: Managers’ perceived lower and upper bounds for New Zealand ETS carbon prices over the next 12 months and for changes in New Zealand’s net greenhouse gas emissions, excluding biogenic methane, by 2050; their perceptions of the corresponding expectations by other managers; their reported uncertainty about the carbon-price outlook.

B) Macroeconomic expectations: Managers’ perceived lower and upper bounds for New Zealand CPI inflation and real GDP growth over the next 12 months.

C) Firm decisions: Reported changes in prices and sales or revenues; the share of capital expenditure allocated to low-carbon assets or improvements; the share of carbon-intensive capital retired early, sold, or disposed of; and changes in the shares of spending on lower-carbon inputs and suppliers and of product development, design, or marketing efforts devoted to lower-carbon products or services.

Expectations will be examined immediately after the information intervention and in the follow-up survey, where the relevant measures are available. The first wave measures planned business decisions before treatment. The follow-up measures reported actions over the preceding three months. These measures cover different time horizons and distinguish intentions from reported behavior.

The primary outcomes will be transition-related expectations, macroeconomic expectations, and firm decisions as explained above. When questions ask about the expected value or change, we will use that number. For variables elicited using lower and upper bounds, we will calculate the midpoint as a proxy for the central location of expectations. For those questions, we also measure perceived uncertainty that equals the difference between the upper and lower. We will also measure the sample standard deviation of the two bounds as the difference between the upper and lower bounds divided by the square root of two.

Additional survey measures will support exploratory analyses of heterogeneity and potential mechanisms. These include baseline beliefs, perceived exposure to the low-carbon transition, firm and manager characteristics, political expectations, the importance of climate policies for firm decisions, financial flexibility, and expectations about government debt and monetary policy accommodation. They also include managers’ perceptions of the channels through which carbon prices and emissions reductions affect inflation and economic growth.

The experiment is embedded in a two-wave survey of corporate managers in New Zealand. Firms in the survey are selected based on their industry, size and annual earnings. The sectors considered are manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, trade, construction and transportation. The firms in the survey includes at least six employees and have an annual turnover of at least NZ$30,000.

Before the randomized information intervention, the first wave elicits long-term climate-related expectations, beliefs about other managers’ expectations, macroeconomic expectations, and planned business decisions. Respondents then receive the information corresponding to their assigned condition. Immediately afterward, the survey re-elicits climate-related expectations, beliefs about other managers’ expectations, and macroeconomic expectations.

A subsequent follow-up wave re-elicits expectations and collects information about firms’ reported actions over the preceding three months. It also includes questions about managers’ perceived economic mechanisms linking the low-carbon transition to macroeconomic outcomes, as well as factors that may shape firms’ responses.

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The principal comparisons are between each information treatment and the control group. Comparisons across information treatments will also be used to investigate whether different types of climate-transition information generate different responses. Follow-up outcomes will be analyzed according to respondents’ original treatment assignment.

We will explore differences in treatment responses associated with baseline beliefs, perceived exposure to the low-carbon transition, and available pre-treatment firm and manager characteristics. Associations involving post-treatment measures will be interpreted as exploratory evidence about potential mechanisms.

This registration specifies the research questions, experimental conditions, principal treatment comparisons, and main outcomes of interest. Given the exploratory nature of the study, it does not prescribe a complete statistical analysis plan or commit to particular regression specifications. Analytical choices, including outcome transformations, covariate adjustment, and the treatment of missing or extreme responses, will be documented transparently.

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Fieldwork is conducted by New Zealand Market Research and Surveys Ltd on the authors’ behalf. Data collection will combine telephone and online methods, with active follow-up to encourage participation and retention across waves. The first survey wave was between June and early September 2026. The follow-up survey is between September and early November 2026.

Not available

Firms will be randomly assigned to one of the four experimental conditions with equal probability (25% per condition). The randomization is done through an online randomization tool.

Firm level.

No

The first wave is expected to be approximately 2000 firms. The follow-up survey is aimed to retain at least 40 percent of participants from the main wave.

Same as above: The first wave is expected to be approximately 2,000 firms. The follow-up survey is aimed to retain at least 40 percent of participants from the main wave.

Firms will be randomly assigned to one of the four experimental conditions with equal probability (25% per condition). The aim is to target around 500 firms for each experimental condition in the main wave and around 200 respectively for the follow-up survey.