Focusing on What Matters: Perceived Relevance and Macroeconomic Expectations

Last registered on September 28, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Focusing on What Matters: Perceived Relevance and Macroeconomic Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019802
Initial registration date
September 23, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 28, 2026, 9:36 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Li Tang
Affiliation
University of Birmingham
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Shihan Xie
PI Affiliation
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
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PI Name
Penghui Yin
PI Affiliation
Central University of Finance and Economics
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-23
End date
2027-04-30
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Theories of limited attention suggest that decision-makers selectively focus on relevant information and update expectations accordingly. In this paper, we conduct multiple surveys to empirically investigate the impact of perceived information relevance on household expectation formation. We begin by developing innovative measures to assess the perceived relevance of various macroeconomic data to household decision-making processes. We show that individuals are more attentive to information deemed relevant to their decisions and respond more strongly to news on relevant information. Perceived relevance makes an individual's subjective macroeconomic models more consistent with macroeconomic theories, such as the consumption Euler equation. These observations offer significant insights for policy-making geared towards household expectation management.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Tang, Li, Shihan Xie and Penghui Yin. 2026. "Focusing on What Matters: Perceived Relevance and Macroeconomic Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. September 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19802-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This trial is a robustness wave for "Focusing on What Matters: Perceived Relevance and Macroeconomic Expectations." It replicates the two-day design of Study 1 with US respondents on Prolific and adds a pure control arm. On Day 1, respondents answer open-ended questions about which economic factors they consider in household financial decisions and which economic news they recall, and report one-year-ahead expectations for inflation, the unemployment rate, and the federal funds rate. They are then randomly assigned to an information arm, which shows published professional forecasts for the three variables, or to a control arm, which shows no forecasts. On Day 2, all respondents report their expectations again.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-23
Intervention End Date
2027-04-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Revision of one-year-ahead inflation expectations between Day 1 and Day 2, and its response to the information shock. The two primary estimands are the treatment-induced learning rate (the difference in the shock coefficient between the information and control arms) and the treatment-induced relevance differential (the additional learning rate among respondents who spontaneously name inflation as relevant to their household financial decisions).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Two-part online survey on consecutive days with US respondents recruited on Prolific. Part 1 elicits unprimed relevance and attention (open-ended), primed relevance and news attention, prior one-year-ahead expectations and forecast uncertainty for inflation, the unemployment rate, and the federal funds rate, and demographics. Respondents are then randomized at the individual level into an information arm or a no-information control arm. Part 2, on the following day, elicits posterior expectations and uncertainty, (an incentivized recall of the information in the treatment arm for treatment group participants,) and expected household financial outcomes. Analysis is intention-to-treat on all respondents who complete both parts.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
1000-2000 respondents in total (1:3 ration for control and treatment group)
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
About 1000 respondents in total
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
About 1000 respondents in total (1:3 for control and treatment group)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Central University of Finance and Economics
IRB Approval Date
2026-09-18
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan