Active Hope in Action: Youth Leadership, Population Dynamics and Environmental Stewardship in Kenya

Last registered on October 16, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Active Hope in Action: Youth Leadership, Population Dynamics and Environmental Stewardship in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019830
Initial registration date
September 28, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 16, 2026, 1:53 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of East Anglia

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-08-01
End date
2027-04-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This pre-analysis plan sets out the prospective empirical strategy for evaluating the Youth Champions Programme (YCP), a youth leadership intervention delivered by the Critical Conversations Association in Kenyan conservancy communities facing intersecting population and environmental pressures. Grounded in the Active Hope framework, the YCP aims to strengthen young people’s knowledge, agency, and capacity to initiate community conversations about population dynamics, environmental sustainability, and reproductive decision-making. The study will use a quasi-experimental mixed-methods design involving approximately 100 programme participants aged 18–25 and 80 matched non-participants across six study sites. Quantitative data will be collected over five waves spanning baseline, immediate post-training assessments for two programme levels, a six-week interval, and a six-month follow-up. Qualitative interviews at Wave 4 will examine mechanisms of change. Programme effects will be estimated principally through multi-period difference-in-differences models comparing changes between treatment and control groups. The analysis will assess outcomes relating to fertility preferences, population knowledge, social norms, population–environment awareness, family-planning attitudes and knowledge, perceived service access, and shared reproductive decision-making, alongside the persistence and potential mechanisms of any effects.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hill, Joshua. 2026. "Active Hope in Action: Youth Leadership, Population Dynamics and Environmental Stewardship in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. October 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19830-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention in this study is the Youth Champions Programme (YCP), a youth leadership and education programme delivered by the Critical Conversations Association (CCA) in conservancy communities in Kenya. It is an educational, attitudinal, and community-engagement intervention designed to influence participants' knowledge, beliefs, agency, and behaviour regarding population dynamics, environmental sustainability, family planning, and reproductive decision-making. The programme is grounded in the Active Hope framework, which seeks to strengthen individual agency in response to social and ecological challenges by encouraging participants to (i) develop a clear understanding of present realities, (ii) articulate a desirable future, and (iii) take practical steps towards change. The framework is operationalised through four components: gratitude, honouring pain, seeing with new eyes, and taking action. Within the study, these concepts are mapped onto a Knowledge-Attitudes-Practices (KAP) framework, whereby knowledge reflects increased understanding of population and environmental dynamics, attitudes capture shifts in agency and outlook, and practices reflect participants' intentions and actions as community champions.

The YCP consists of two five-day residential training programmes delivered approximately six weeks apart. Training combines population education, environmental sustainability education, reproductive health and family planning information, indigenous knowledge systems, and leadership development. Core topics include population growth, replacement fertility, dependency ratios, family planning, reproductive health, ecological footprints, biodiversity, planetary pressures, population-environment linkages, indigenous stewardship traditions, and seven-generation thinking. Delivery is highly participatory and incorporates storytelling, theatre, music, creative arts, nature-based learning, facilitated discussion, reflection exercises, photo-journalling, and peer-learning activities. Participants are additionally trained in facilitation and communication skills to enable them to act as peer educators and lead population-environment conversations within their own communities.

Treatment status is defined as enrolment in and participation in the YCP. Approximately 100 young people aged 18-25 years from six Kenyan conservancy communities receive the intervention. Exposure occurs in two stages: Level 1 training and Level 2 training. Outcomes are measured before and after each training phase and again six months after completion. The treatment is therefore a multi-component behavioural and educational intervention intended to affect knowledge, attitudes, perceived social norms, environmental beliefs, reproductive agency, and fertility preferences.

The treatment group comprises individuals enrolled in the YCP. The comparison group consists of approximately 80 non-participants drawn from the same communities and matched on age, sex, educational attainment, and geographic location. Control participants receive no YCP training during the study period and complete the same survey instruments at equivalent time points. The evaluation therefore estimates programme effects by comparing outcome trajectories between the treatment and matched comparison groups over multiple survey waves.
Intervention Start Date
2026-08-01
Intervention End Date
2027-04-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The evaluation assesses both immediate and longer-term programme impacts using repeated surveys administered across five waves: baseline (pre-Level 1), post-Level 1, pre-Level 2, post-Level 2, and a six-month follow-up. The primary analytical approach is a multi-period difference-in-differences design comparing changes in outcomes between treatment and control participants over time.

The study tests programme effects across six principal outcome domains:

1) Fertility preferences (desired number of children).
2) Population knowledge, including understanding of population size, dependency ratios, replacement fertility, and drivers of population growth.
3) Social norms and expectations, including perceptions of socially acceptable family size and expected family size within the community.
4) Population-environment awareness, including understanding of population pressure, environmental sustainability, and population-environment relationships.
5) Family planning and reproductive agency, including family planning acceptance, contraceptive knowledge, perceived access to services, and support for shared reproductive decision-making.
6) Persistence of effects, assessing whether any observed impacts remain detectable six months after programme completion.

In addition to outcome testing, the study includes pre-specified mechanism analyses examining whether observed changes in fertility preferences are mediated through changes in population knowledge, social norms, environmental beliefs, family planning attitudes, and reproductive agency. Qualitative interviews conducted immediately following Level 2 training are used to explore participants' experiences of the programme and the mechanisms underlying any observed quantitative effects.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
These are set out above.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a randomised longitudinal treatment-control design with repeated measures (recruitment of both control and treatment groups occurs simultaneously and the allocation to either treatment or control group is determined by stratified randomisation to ensure appropriate balance/to avoid confounds). Approximately 100 Youth Champions Programme participants and 80 matched comparison participants are surveyed at baseline, after Level 1 training, before Level 2 training, after Level 2 training, and six months post-intervention. Impact estimates are obtained using difference-in-differences models comparing outcome changes between treatment and comparison groups over time. Primary outcomes relate to fertility preferences, population knowledge, environmental awareness, social norms, and family planning attitudes and agency. Secondary analyses examine hypothesised mechanisms of change and the durability of programme effects.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Following recruitment and baseline data collection, eligible volunteer participants are assigned by stratified randomisation to either the treatment group (receiving the Youth Champions Programme) or the control group (not receiving the programme during the study period). Stratified randomisation is used to ensure that treatment and control groups are statistically comparable on both observed and unobserved characteristics at baseline.
Randomization Unit
Recruitment village - stratified randomisation at this level to ensure balance between control and treatment group.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
180 individuals, 80 control, 100 treatment. Corrections included for sub-group clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
180 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
One treatment group, one baseline.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
The detectable standardised effect size is likely to be in the region of 0.40-0.50 standard deviations, before any gains from repeated measures. Based on a small sample pilot, this is expected to provide sufficient power.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of East Anglia, Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2026-05-12
IRB Approval Number
N/a
IRB Name
Daystar University, Kenya
IRB Approval Date
2026-06-23
IRB Approval Number
N/a
Analysis Plan

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