Housing Affordability: Beliefs and Policy Preferences

Housing affordability has become one of the most pressing economic and social problems in the United States. Increasing housing supply is one solution, but proposals for new development and reforms of local land-use regulation are often blocked by local residents ("Not In My Back Yard" opposition). This study examines how people perceive housing affordability and housing policies, and what shapes their support for increasing housing supply. People's views may reflect not only self-interest, through the effects of new housing on them as homeowners or renters, but also social preferences: concern for its broader effects on others, and fairness considerations, such as whether their community is singled out to bear the costs while others free-ride. We survey US homeowners and renters aged 25–70 living in metropolitan ZIP codes and elicit their perceptions of local home values, rents, housing growth and affordability, which we compare with administrative and market data. Respondents then consider a hypothetical state law that removes some local restrictions on housing development, so that in five years their ZIP code has 10% more homes than it otherwise would. They are randomly assigned to one of three framings: no information about other communities (Control); a regional plan under which all communities in their metropolitan area must allow comparable increases (Broad); or a policy that applies only to their ZIP code (Narrow). We measure support for the policy, its perceived fairness, and expected effects on the respondent's own home value or rent, metro-wide prices, property taxes, neighborhood amenities and the mix of new residents. Comparing the arms shows how far support for new housing in one's own area depends on whether other communities must also build. The survey also measures beliefs about other housing policies and political views, allowing us to study which considerations most strongly predict support for housing policy.