Estimating the Marginal Propensity to Invest from Firm Surveys

Last registered on October 07, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Estimating the Marginal Propensity to Invest from Firm Surveys
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019890
Initial registration date
October 06, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 07, 2026, 11:11 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Nils Wehrhöfer
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Olga Goldfayn-Frank
PI Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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PI Name
Damjan Pfajfar
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-10-07
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We measure firms’ marginal propensity to invest (MPI) using a hypothetical windfall/loss scenario in both German and US firm survey data.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Goldfayn-Frank, Olga, Damjan Pfajfar and Nils Wehrhöfer. 2026. "Estimating the Marginal Propensity to Invest from Firm Surveys." AEA RCT Registry. October 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19890-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Firms are confronted with a hypothetical windfall/loss scenario in which they have to allocate the windfall/loss to a number of expenditure items.
Intervention Start Date
2026-10-07
Intervention End Date
2026-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
marginal propensity to invest
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
marginal propensity to spend on labor, profits, debt, liquidity buffer, and other items.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Each firm is confronted with a positive and negative hypothetical scenario. The size of the shock varies between 3%, 5%, and 10% of annual sales. After each, firms are asked for their response along a number of margins.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Firm
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~ 7200 Firms (Germany), ~ 300 Firms (US)
Sample size: planned number of observations
~ 7200 Firms (Germany), ~ 300 Firms (US)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~ 2400 in each treatment arm (Germany), ~ 100 in each treatment arm (US)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan