New Experimental Evidence on Expectations Formation

Last registered on January 02, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
New Experimental Evidence on Expectations Formation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003173
Initial registration date
July 28, 2018
Last updated
January 02, 2021, 4:51 PM EST

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Chicago

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
MIT Sloan
PI Affiliation
HEC Paris

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2017-01-01
End date
2023-01-01
Secondary IDs
Abstract
In this project, we study expectations formation in an experimental setting, using simple and stable statistical process. We perform these tests in large and diverse populations. We document significant and stable deviations from rationality, in the direction of overreaction. Furthermore, the degree of overreaction is stronger when the process is more transitory. We also find that commonly used models of expectations do not seem to account for the key patterns in the data. We design additional tests to investigate the underlying mechanism.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Landier, Augustin, Yueran Ma and David Thesmar. 2021. "New Experimental Evidence on Expectations Formation." AEA RCT Registry. January 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3173-1.1
Former Citation
Landier, Augustin et al. 2021. "New Experimental Evidence on Expectations Formation." AEA RCT Registry. January 02. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3173/history/83187
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2017-01-01
Intervention End Date
2023-01-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Participants' forecasts of the future realizations of the statistical process.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We provide participants with simple and stable statistical processes, and ask them to make forecasts of the future realizations. Participants complete the experiment online using their own devices.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Via our online experimental interface.
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Several thousand individuals.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Several thousand individuals.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Around 30 individuals per treatment condition.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee on the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects
IRB Approval Date
2016-12-21
IRB Approval Number
1612795574