Abstract
Over 1.3bn people worldwide lack access to modern energy. In Sub-Saharan Africa more than 600 million live without electricity and this is expected to rise given grid expansion is not predicted to keep pace with population growth. Moreover, almost 6 million children under 5 die each year from preventable diseases, the main cause being respiratory infections, and smoke from traditional lighting sources is a risk factor in correlational and small-scale studies. Further, the US and UK alone, via Power Africa's Beyond the Grid, have recently committed to invest over $1 billion in off-grid and small-scale solar solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this is a fraction of the total amount invested. Yet, there have only been small-scale rigorous studies in Africa which examine welfare impacts. Given the significant sums invested, it is important for governments and impact investors to know the welfare and development effects of low-cost off-grid solar lighting.
This will be the first truly large-scale study to use a randomized control trial to evaluate solar energy in rural Africa. We carry out our research in Rwanda, a country with low levels of rural electrification, which it has in common with the broader region. We evaluate welfare effects of an ultra low-cost program which has distributed solar lighting to over 150,000 households in rural Rwanda. We collect survey data on roughly 16,000 individuals and 3100 households in 283 villages, half of which were randomly assigned solar in 2016. In addition, we use big data on light usage which is captured automatically and remotely transmitted via GSM technology designed for the purposes of this research. We will also use administrative program cost data for a cost-effectiveness analysis.
Recently a randomized evaluation of rural grid electricity rollout, and another on solar lighting, found no impacts, or that where these existed they were not welfare-improving because of high costs. The benefit of solar lamps and phone charging is their very low cost and ease of distribution. However, impacts, if they exist, can also be expected to be small. Thus, a large sample is required to detect these and conclusions about zero impacts should not be made based on studies with insufficient statistical power. Although impacts are likely small, the low cost of solar lights could make them a cost-effective welfare-enhancing intervention, unlike grid electricity which has failed in this respect.