Forecasting effects of development interventions

Last registered on January 28, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Forecasting effects of development interventions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003600
Initial registration date
November 25, 2018

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 07, 2019, 2:41 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 28, 2020, 1:50 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2018-10-01
End date
2022-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of randomized controlled trials in development. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Otis, Nicholas. 2020. "Forecasting effects of development interventions." AEA RCT Registry. January 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3600-2.3000000000000003
Former Citation
Otis, Nicholas. 2020. "Forecasting effects of development interventions." AEA RCT Registry. January 28. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3600/history/61519
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of randomized controlled trials in development. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.

This page contains time-stamped documents prespecifying which outcomes will be forecast for each RCT before experimental results are known or released. Due to the varying timelines of the studies being forecast, these will be uploaded at separate times.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2018-10-01
Intervention End Date
2020-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
My outcomes are measures of prediction accuracy of results of randomized controlled trials in development.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Further information on accuracy measures will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects. Prespecified forecast outcomes will be sequentially uploaded before any experimental results are known.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Experimental Design Details
Each forecast RCT has a number of outcomes. Each respondent predicts the results of several outcomes for a single RCT. For all respondents, I will randomize the order that respondents answer the different survey block (corresponding to these different outcomes). For a subset of respondents, I also randomize forecast elicitation strategy.
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
A minimum of 400 predictions will be collected for each forecast study.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Dependent on the total number of forecast experiments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC Berkeley IRB
IRB Approval Date
2018-07-02
IRB Approval Number
2017-11-10516
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials