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Forecasting results of development interventions
Last registered on September 30, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Forecasting results of development interventions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003600
Initial registration date
November 25, 2018
Last updated
September 30, 2019 8:39 PM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
Other Primary Investigator(s)
Additional Trial Information
Status
In development
Start date
2018-10-01
End date
2022-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of randomized controlled trials in development. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Otis, Nicholas. 2019. "Forecasting results of development interventions." AEA RCT Registry. September 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3600-2.1.
Former Citation
Otis, Nicholas. 2019. "Forecasting results of development interventions." AEA RCT Registry. September 30. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3600/history/54394.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of randomized controlled trials in development. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.

This page contains time-stamped documents prespecifying which outcomes will be forecast for each RCT before experimental results are known or released. Due to the varying timelines of the studies being forecast, these will be uploaded at separate times.
Intervention Start Date
2018-10-01
Intervention End Date
2020-12-31
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
My outcomes are measures of prediction accuracy of results of randomized controlled trials in development.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Further information on accuracy measures will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects. Prespecified forecast outcomes will be sequentially uploaded before any experimental results are known.
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
A minimum of 400 predictions will be collected for each forecast study.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Dependent on the total number of forecast experiments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
UC Berkeley IRB
IRB Approval Date
2018-07-02
IRB Approval Number
2017-11-10516