A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks
Last registered on June 16, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003633
Initial registration date
December 04, 2018
Last updated
June 16, 2019 11:42 AM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
UCSD
Other Primary Investigator(s)
Additional Trial Information
Status
On going
Start date
2016-03-28
End date
2019-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Recent debate has identified important gaps in the understanding of intertemporal
risks. Critical to closing these gaps is evidence on which dimension of intertemporal risk
–the risk or the time–is evaluated first. Though under discounted expected utility this
ordering is of no consequence, under discounted non-expected utility models the order
of evaluation is critical. We provide experimental tests in which different orderings of
evaluation generate different predictions for behavior. We find more support for the
notion that the risk dimension is evaluated first.
Registration Citation
Citation
Feldman, Paul. 2019. "A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3633/history/48198
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2018-12-04
Intervention End Date
2019-02-28
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Probability equivalents for the different multiple price lists/tasks/treatments.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
We elicit probability equivalents for multiple lotteries with time-dated payoffs in the future. In particular, we are interested in the effect of compounding across time for the various probability equivalents.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Multiple ten-sided dice as described in the protocols.
Randomization Unit
Experimental sessions
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
4
Sample size: planned number of observations
96
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
96, within-subject design. Some analysis will be done between subjects.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Details in the analysis plan.
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO HUMAN RESEARCH PROTECTIONS PROGRAM
IRB Approval Date
2018-07-11
IRB Approval Number
171230S
Analysis Plan
Analysis Plan Documents
Preanalysis and instructions

MD5: 4505937d95409a423428608850b607b0

SHA1: 9175e4b8ca2c43de8144f8d575f8bd7534692546

Uploaded At: December 06, 2018