A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks

Last registered on June 16, 2019
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003633
Initial registration date
December 04, 2018

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 18, 2018, 4:19 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
June 16, 2019, 11:42 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
California

Primary Investigator

Name
Paul Feldman
Affiliation
Texas A&M University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2016-03-28
End date
2019-12-31
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
Risk and Time Preferences
JEL code(s)
C91, D81, D91
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Recent debate has identified important gaps in the understanding of intertemporal
risks. Critical to closing these gaps is evidence on which dimension of intertemporal risk
–the risk or the time–is evaluated first. Though under discounted expected utility this
ordering is of no consequence, under discounted non-expected utility models the order
of evaluation is critical. We provide experimental tests in which different orderings of
evaluation generate different predictions for behavior. We find more support for the
notion that the risk dimension is evaluated first.
External Link(s)
Original working paper, study was finished 2017, running additional robustness tasks.

Registration Citation

Citation
Feldman, Paul. 2019. "A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3633-2.0
Former Citation
Feldman, Paul. 2019. "A Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of Intertemporal Risks." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3633/history/48198
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2018-12-04
Intervention End Date
2019-02-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Probability equivalents for the different multiple price lists/tasks/treatments.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We elicit probability equivalents for multiple lotteries with time-dated payoffs in the future. In particular, we are interested in the effect of compounding across time for the various probability equivalents.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Multiple ten-sided dice as described in the protocols.
Randomization Unit
Experimental sessions
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4
Sample size: planned number of observations
96
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
96, within-subject design. Some analysis will be done between subjects.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Details in the analysis plan.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO HUMAN RESEARCH PROTECTIONS PROGRAM
IRB Approval Date
2018-07-11
IRB Approval Number
171230S
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Preanalysis and instructions

MD5: 4505937d95409a423428608850b607b0

SHA1: 9175e4b8ca2c43de8144f8d575f8bd7534692546

Uploaded At: December 06, 2018

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials