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Field
Trial Status
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Before
in_development
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After
completed
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Field
Trial Start Date
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Before
January 20, 2019
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After
April 01, 2019
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Field
Trial End Date
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Before
July 31, 2019
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After
November 01, 2019
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Field
Last Published
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Before
May 13, 2019 11:26 PM
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After
January 06, 2020 03:47 PM
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Field
Intervention (Public)
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Before
We will conduct phone surveys with a sample of clients from a large commercial bank. We will be able to link the survey responses back to the administrative data of the bank, which includes real-time information on the behavior of these individuals such as their credit card and debit card transactions.
In the survey, we'll measure two key beliefs that are important in the context of this experiment: the expected inflation rate over the following 12 months, and the expected nominal exchange rate 12 months in the future.
We will start by exploring the association between these beliefs and different forms of behavior. As complementary evidence, we'll embed and information-provision experiment in the survey. That will allow us to obtain experimental estimates of the causal effects of beliefs on behavior.
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After
We will conduct phone surveys with a sample of clients from a large commercial bank. We will be able to link the survey responses back to the administrative data of the bank, which includes real-time information on the behavior of these individuals such as their credit card and debit card transactions.
In the survey, we'll measure two key beliefs that are important in the context of this experiment: the expected nominal exchange rate 12 months in the future and the expected inflation rate over the following 12 months.
We will start by exploring the association between these beliefs and consumption and financing behavior. As complementary evidence, we will embed an information-provision experiment in the survey. In the experiment, we randomly provide expert forecasts on the exchange rate and the inflation rate in 12 months. That will allow us to obtain experimental estimates of the causal effects of beliefs on behavior.
We will start by exploring the association between these beliefs and different forms of behavior. As complementary evidence, we'll embed and information-provision experiment in the survey. That will allow us to obtain experimental estimates of the causal effects of beliefs on behavior.
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Field
Intervention Start Date
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Before
January 20, 2019
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After
April 01, 2019
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Field
Intervention End Date
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Before
April 01, 2019
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After
July 19, 2019
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Field
Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
We will test a series of predictions from macroeconomic models. For example, if an individual believes that the nominal exchange rate will go up in the next 12 months, that individual may want to buy soon imported goods such as consumer electronics. For these outcomes, we'll have two versions:
(i) Subjective measures of future spending elicited at the end of the survey.
(i) Objective measures of actual future spending obtained from the administrative records of the bank.
For example, we included one subjective question about whether it was a good time to buy consumer electronics. And we can use the bank's transaction data to measure (approximately) the actual spending on consumer electronics. Given that the transaction data is high-frequency data, we can explore effects at different time horizons (e.g., the effects during the first month versus the effect during the first three months).
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After
We will test three predictions from macroeconomic models. First, we check if inflation expectations impact spending on durables. Second, we ask whether beliefs on exchange rate depreciation affect purchases of the tradable part of durables. Third, we check if inflation expectations affect household debt: specifically, we look at credit card debt and purchases with installments.
For these outcomes, we'll have two versions:
(i) Subjective measures of future spending elicited at the end of the survey.
(ii) Objective measures of actual future spending obtained from the administrative records of the bank.
Subjective measures are composed of a battery of consumption-related questions asked at the end of the survey. Specifically, we ask two questions on general expectations of the respondent’s financial well-being and state of the economy, three questions on expected expenditures and credit card financing, and four questions on the timing of durable goods consumption.
The setup will allow us to observe the analogs of expenditure variables in the administrative data. First, we use the credit and debit card purchases data to test the predictions on the effect of the exchange rate and inflation on durable consumption. We use MCC categories to classify the goods into perishables vs durables and tradables vs non-tradables.
Second, we use the data on credit card debt and installment payments to check if there are effects of inflation on borrowing.
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Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
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Before
Individuals can receive feedback about the inflation rate, the exchange rate, or both. We'll randomly assign them with equal probability, resulting in one third of the respondents in each treatment group.
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After
Individuals can receive feedback about the exchange rate, the inflation rate, or both. We'll randomly assign them with equal probability, resulting in one third of the respondents in each treatment group.
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