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Confidence Preferences
Last registered on October 02, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Confidence Preferences
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003771
Initial registration date
October 01, 2020
Last updated
October 02, 2020 10:53 AM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Additional Trial Information
Status
On going
Start date
2018-01-01
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
In this paper we investigate people’s preference for prospects with varying ambiguity. We expect these preferences to systematically respond to the variance in ambiguity.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Klingebiel, Ronald and Feibai Zhu. 2020. "Confidence Preferences." AEA RCT Registry. October 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3771-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2020-10-05
Intervention End Date
2021-04-30
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Matching probabilities for ambiguous prospects
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Subjects indicate their choices between an ambiguous prospect (with and without samples) and a list of risky prospects. Subjects’ switching points indicate the matching probability for an ambiguous prospect (Dimmock et al. 2015).
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Certainty equivalents for risky prospects
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
We use physical Ellsberg-type urns as stimulus. Choices are incentivized monetarily. All urns contain 100 balls with each ball either red or black. Subjects bet on both colors. The color compositions of the risky urns are known. The color compositions of the ambiguous urns are unknown. There are three types of choice sets.
In Round A, we elicit risk attitudes through certainty equivalents for 3 risky urns containing 10 red (90 black), 30 red (70 black) and 50 red (50 black).
In Round B, we elicit ambiguity attitudes through matching probabilities for a fully ambiguous urn. Subjects choose without samples.
In Round C, we elicit ambiguity attitudes through matching probability for varyingly ambiguous urns. We randomly draw some sample balls (with replacement) from the urn and subjects can see the sample balls. We observe how the matching probabilities change with different samples.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Throwing a die. There is no manipulation. Online experiment is randomized by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Decisions
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
n/a
Sample size: planned number of observations
Offline about 150 subjects, Online about 150 subjects
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
n/a
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Experiment Committee
IRB Approval Date
2020-09-10
IRB Approval Number
2020-09-10