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Experimental Research on Population Growth Projections
Last registered on July 26, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Experimental Research on Population Growth Projections
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004216
Initial registration date
July 26, 2019
Last updated
July 26, 2019 4:32 PM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Additional Trial Information
Status
In development
Start date
2019-08-05
End date
2019-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We investigate to what extent laypersons are capable in correctly understanding population growth projections.
We therefore design an economic lab experiment in which we confront our student subjects with different migration scenarios. In the experiment, all subjects are in the role of the government and have to decide how many migrants to allow in the domestic country so that by the end of a specified time frame, the share of migrants compared to the domestic population reaches a specific target threshold. Deviations below and above this target will be monetarily sanctioned. Subjects are presented 30 different scenarios. The scenarios are held in neutral language. We talk of population “A” and “B” and that the mandate is to allow so many of population “B” to enter the country of “A” in order for the share of “B” to reach a specific threshold by the end of the specified time frame. Subjects are given instructions with detailed information about the experiment, including information how to interpret age pyramids, and how input data such as fertility rate, life expectancy, mortality rates etc. are used to calculate the expected projection growth of the two populations “A” and “B”. At the end of the experiment each subject receives information how accurate the decisions were and be paid according to the decisions in all 30 scenarios.

External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Abbink, Klaus and Behnud Mir Djawadi. 2019. "Experimental Research on Population Growth Projections." AEA RCT Registry. July 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4216-1.0.
Former Citation
Abbink, Klaus and Behnud Mir Djawadi. 2019. "Experimental Research on Population Growth Projections." AEA RCT Registry. July 26. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/4216/history/50702.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2019-08-05
Intervention End Date
2019-12-31
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
The year at which the subject stops the immigration process for one scenario. The share of the B-population by the end of the specified period in one scenario.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
In this experiment participants will make decisions for different situations displayed to them on the computer screen. Participants receive written instructions which describe the features of the experiment in more detail. The decisions will be paid monetarily at the end of the session. Details about the payment will be described in the instructions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We have a within-subject design with 30 conditions. Each subject goes through each condition displayed on a computer screen in random order. The random order is implemented by an computer. Upon arrival at the experimental laboratory, participants are randomly assigned to the different computer workplaces. Randomization to the different computer workplaces takes place by drawing a number out of an urn.
Randomization Unit
Individual randomization
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
150-300 individuals mostly students enrolled as prospective participants in economic experiments at University. Each subject is one independent unit of observation. The planned number of observations is subject to availability.
Sample size: planned number of observations
150-300 individuals mostly students enrolled as prospective participants in economic experiments at University. Each subject is one independent unit of observation. The planned number of observations is subject to availability.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
As described above our experiment consists of a within-subject design. The planned number of 150-300 individuals each go through all 30 conditions. The planned number of observations is subject to availability.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
Ethikkommission Universität Paderborn (Head: Prof. Dr. René Fahr)
IRB Approval Date
2019-03-25
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

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