Primary Outcomes (explanation)
We believe the training program will directly impact peoples’ entrepreneurial readiness and confidence and encourage them to engage in entrepreneurial activities (outcomes #1 and 2 above). We then want to test whether their increased entrepreneurial confidence engender more hopeful and optimistic personal outlooks, promote attitudes towards regional peace, and/or decrease inclinations towards radicalization. In this way we can see primary outcomes #1-2 as “first stage” variables and outcomes #3-5 as “second stage” variables. Since we think the efficacy of the training program in generating a first stage may vary with observables such as training location, gender, and level of preparation (e.g., college major), we will analyze treatment effects on our second stage variables (#3-5) in two ways: first in a standard reduced form intent-to-treat framework (regressing the outcome variables on a dummy for treatment), and second, in an IV framework where the endogenous regressor is outcome #1, the dependent variables are outcomes #3-5, and the instruments are a dummy for being in the treatment group interacted with variables which affect the first stage such as training location, gender, and preparation.
We believe the first endline will be too soon after the intervention to impact wages and new business creation, but can test whether people are using the tools they learned to engage in entrepreneurial activities (outcome #2).