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Watching the State: Can New Technologies Promote (a Sense of) Democracy?

Last registered on August 30, 2019
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Watching the State: Can New Technologies Promote (a Sense of) Democracy?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004635
Initial registration date
August 29, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 30, 2019, 9:59 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Russian Federation
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Anastasiia Faikina
Affiliation
University of California San Diego
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2019-08-22
End date
2019-12-31
Keywords
Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
Corruption, Elections, Fraud, Technologies, Video Monitoring
JEL code(s)
D72, D73, K42, P16
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Why do autocrats implement new technologies aimed at increasing transparency - to curb corruption or to create a veneer of democracy? This project studies the effects of technology of video monitoring of election on its outcomes, the behavior of local authorities and citizens' beliefs in one prominent authoritarian regime, Russia. Using administrative data on results of the 2018 Presidential election, I show that video monitoring suppresses voter turnout by 5% and reduces the number of votes cast for the incumbent by 8.5%, consistent with an improvement in electoral accountability. However, these effects are partially mitigated by displacement of votes to nearby unmonitored polling stations. To test the mechanisms and explore effects on citizens’ beliefs, I conduct online and in-person survey experiments ahead of the 2019 Single Voting Day. In particular, I introduce a reminder to respondents in the treatment group that many polling stations in the upcoming election will have video monitoring and that they can freely observe it on the government-run website. Afterward, I elicit respondents' voting behavior and beliefs, perceptions of electoral integrity, and general views on democracy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Faikina, Anastasiia. 2019. "Watching the State: Can New Technologies Promote (a Sense of) Democracy?." AEA RCT Registry. August 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4635-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention consists of two survey experiments conducted online and in-person. The treatment group receives a reminder that many polling stations in the upcoming election will be equipped with video monitoring. It also provides information that the government-run website <name> will freely stream the election day online. The control group does not receive any information about video monitoring. After the treatment is introduced, I elicit respondents’ voting behavior and beliefs, perceptions of electoral integrity, and general views on democracy. To elicit voter intimidation, I cross-randomize a listing experiment over the main treatment.
Intervention Start Date
2019-08-22
Intervention End Date
2019-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Voting behavior, Voter intimidation, Perceptions of electoral integrity, Views on democracy
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Voting Behavior: An index that combines outcomes of self-reported turnout, voting for the ruling party, and second-order beliefs about the voting behavior of others.

Voter Intimidation: The number of items named in an embedded listing experiment that is cross-randomized over the main experiment.

Perceptions of electoral integrity: An index that combines outcomes of trust in election results and beliefs about elections leading to improvements.

Views on democracy: An index that combines outcomes of a state of democracy in Russia, perceptions of democratic values, and beliefs on tax compliance.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Effectiveness and approval of video monitoring, Knowledge about video monitoring, Engagement in video monitoring
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In-person survey. About two weeks before Single Voting Day, I will conduct a survey experiment on a subsample of respondents of a nationally representative survey who indicate that there will be elections in their locality. Half of this subsample will be assigned to a treatment group which will be reminded about the presence of video monitoring at many polling stations. They will also be given information that the government-led website <name> will stream the election day online and asked whether they will watch it. Respondents in the control group will not receive any information about video monitoring.

Online survey. Wave 1. Two weeks before Single Voting Day, I will use the online survey platform Anketolog to recruit 1,600 respondents who reside in the regions that will have Gubernatorial elections. Half of them (800 respondents) will be assigned to a treatment group that will get a reminder about video monitoring in the upcoming elections. Another half (800 respondents) will not get any information about video monitoring. Afterward, I will elicit respondents’ intended voting behavior, beliefs about the voting behavior of others, and perceptions of electoral integrity.

Wave 2. After Single Voting Day, I will attempt to recontact the same sample of 1,600 respondents. I will elicit their real voting behavior, perceptions of electoral integrity, and general views on democracy. I will also cross-randomize half of them into a listing experiment to elicit voter intimidation. Moreover, I will elicit their knowledge and engagement in video monitoring, as well as their beliefs on its effectiveness.
Experimental Design Details
Treatment Questions (unique for both surveys):

Did you know that many polling stations in the upcoming election will also have webcams inside that will stream the election day online?

The website <name> will stream the election day online from all polling stations in the country that are equipped with webcams. You can simply visit the website on the election day and observe the voting process at any polling station. Will you observe the election day on <name>?
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted by survey firms.
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Treatment is not clustered. Information on the number of observations is presented below.
Sample size: planned number of observations
In-person survey: A subsample of a nationally representative sample of 1,600 respondents who will indicate that there will be elections in their locality on the 2019 Single Voting Day. Online survey: 1600 respondents who reside in the regions that will have gubernatorial elections on the 2019 Single Voting Day.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
In-person survey: 1/4 of the subsample that has elections control-no listing, 1/4 of the subsample control-listing, 1/4 of the subsample treatment-no listing, 1/4 of the subsample treatment-listing.

Online survey: 1/4 of the sample (~400 respondents) control-no listing, 1/4 of the sample (~400 respondents) control-listing, 1/4 of the sample (~400 respondents) treatment-no listing, 1/4 of the sample (~400 respondents) treatment-listing. Note: There is a probability of attrition from the 2nd wave of the online survey.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UCSD Human Research Protections Program (HRPP)
IRB Approval Date
2019-08-16
IRB Approval Number
191211
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials