NEW UPDATE: Completed trials may now upload and register supplementary documents (e.g. null results reports, populated pre-analysis plans, or post-trial results reports) in the Post Trial section under Reports, Papers, & Other Materials.
The effect of winning an oil lease lottery on the winner
Last registered on October 07, 2019


Trial Information
General Information
The effect of winning an oil lease lottery on the winner
Initial registration date
September 11, 2019
Last updated
October 07, 2019 12:52 PM EDT

This section is unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access to this information.

Request Information
Primary Investigator
Texas A&M University
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Oberlin College
Additional Trial Information
In development
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
We will study a pre-existing natural policy experiment from the 1970's and 1980's where oil and gas leases in Wyoming BLM land were allocated via lottery. We will examine the effect that winning a lottery has on lottery winners. One outcome variables we will examine is whether the winner ever appears later on as a lease holder for any other Wyoming BLM land and/or whether the winner appears as a well operator in Wyoming. We will examine this separately for lottery entrants that were firms and lottery entrants that were individuals. The second outcome variable we will examine is whether the lottery entrant participated in M&A activity -- e.g., whether it merged with another firm. This will only be examined for lottery entrants that are firms.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Brehm, Paul and Eric Lewis. 2019. "The effect of winning an oil lease lottery on the winner." AEA RCT Registry. October 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4663-1.1.
Experimental Details
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
(1) Whether the entrant appears later on as a lease holder in any other BLM leases
This will be done separately for entrants who are individuals and entrants who are firms
(2) Whether the entrant appears later on in any M&A activity
This will only be done for firms
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Natural experiment -- lottery of oil and gas leases on BLM land in Wyoming in the 1970's.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization Unit
lottery entrant (individuals and firms)
Was the treatment clustered?
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
approximately 30,000 lottery entrants are observed.

We only observe 30,000 lottery entrants over about 10,000 leases. This is because the BLM recorded the name of the first-place winner and the second- and third-place runner ups (in case the first-place winner was unable to claim the lottery). Other entrants are not observed in the data.
Sample size: planned number of observations
approximately 30,000 lottery entrants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
approximately 10,000 lottery entrants won (treated); approximately 20,000 lottery entrants lost (control).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number