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The effect of information about the risk of deportation on the subjective expectations of recent Afghan migrants to Germany
Last registered on October 08, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
The effect of information about the risk of deportation on the subjective expectations of recent Afghan migrants to Germany
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004828
Initial registration date
October 08, 2019
Last updated
October 08, 2019 1:46 PM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Max-Planck Insitute for Social Law and Social Policy
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Max-Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
PI Affiliation
Max-Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
Additional Trial Information
Status
On going
Start date
2019-05-28
End date
2019-12-14
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We study the effect of an information treatment on the subjective beliefs of recent migrants from Afghanistan to Germany. In our sample, migrants overstate the probability to be deported and sent back to their home country by the authorities. We design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to see the effect of this overstatement on migrants' beliefs of their ability to stay in Germany. We inform a treatment group of the past probability to be deported in the population. Then, we measure how migrants update their beliefs about the future rate of deportation in the population, their own chance to be deported, and the chance to stay in Germany, with or without a residence permit.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Khourshed, May, Diana Maria López-Falcón and Romuald Meango. 2019. "The effect of information about the risk of deportation on the subjective expectations of recent Afghan migrants to Germany." AEA RCT Registry. October 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4828-1.0.
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
In the first period of the survey, from May 28 to July 01, 2019, we noticed that respondents perceived the risk of deportation very high, compared to official annual statistics on the actual level of deportation of Afghanis in Germany. Therefore, we decided to design and implement a RCT with an information treatment on the risk of deportation. As part of the survey, we conduct an RCT with an information treatment about the risk of deportation. Through our experiment we aim to understand how migrants update their beliefs about their own chance to be deported, the chance to stay in Germany, or the chance to obtain a residence permit after they are informed of the past probability to be deported in the population.
Intervention Start Date
2019-07-23
Intervention End Date
2019-12-14
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
The main outcomes of interest, and the questions eliciting them are as follows:

1- the perceived proportion of the population that will be deported in the next few years:
What do you think it [that is, the number of Afghans deported from Germany to Afghanistan] will be in the next 3 years?

2- the stated probability to stay in Germany:
What do you think is the percent chance that you would stay in Germany for the next 3 years?

3- the stated probability to stay in Germany even without the right to stay in Germany:
For this situation [No legal right to stay in Germany], what do you think is the percent chance that you would be sent back (deported) to Afghanistan within the following 3 years?
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
The information treatment is assigned to half of the population through a pseudo-random number generator provided by the survey software. The random number is drawn at the begin of the survey. When assigned to the treatment group, the treatment information appears on the computer screen for the interviewer to read. When assigned to the control group, the information does not appear. The interviewer where instructed during their training not to provide the information if it does not appear.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
3 cities
Sample size: planned number of observations
700 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
350 individuals control, 350 treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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