The effect of information about the risk of deportation on the subjective expectations of recent Afghan migrants to Germany

In the first period of the survey, from May 28 to July 01, 2019, we noticed that respondents perceived the risk of deportation very high, compared to official annual statistics on the actual level of deportation of Afghanis in Germany. Therefore, we decided to design and implement a RCT with an information treatment on the risk of deportation. As part of the survey, we conduct an RCT with an information treatment about the risk of deportation. Through our experiment we aim to understand how migrants update their beliefs about their own chance to be deported, the chance to stay in Germany, or the chance to obtain a residence permit after they are informed of the past probability to be deported in the population.

Measuring Migrant's Expectations

The Survey includes a module about migrants' expectations. These questions mainly relate to the respondent's expectations about staying or leaving Germany, given the current legal status or lack thereof, obtaining a legal status in the future, and the outcomes in case of staying or leaving. These questions require from the respondent to state subjective probabilities as a number between 0 and 100. The module includes a training phase where the respondent is trained to state subjective expectation with a number between 0 and 100. The questions are complemented with visual aids to facilitate understanding.


Intervention

We investigate the effect of our RCT on these expectations questions by providing the following information:

There are official statistics about the number of Afghans that were deported from Germany to Afghanistan. From December 2016 to May 2019, in total 565 Afghan were deported from Germany by the German Authorities. This means about 1 Afghan out of 100 Afghans who arrived in Germany since 2016.

Timeline of the intervention

The questionnaire is administered as a Computer-Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) between one interviewer and one respondent. The survey is programmed in Limesurvey. The answers are anonymous. Participation is restricted to the receipt of an invitation that contains a unique alphanumeric 5-position code. The questionnaire is translated in Dari and Pashtu, the most widely spoken languages of Afghanistan. Interviewers are fluent in one of these languages.

The questionnaire can be broken down into several sections. The first section collects socio-demographic information: gender, age, employment history, family characteristics. Second section is on migration history: the route, timing and the history of legal statuses in Germany. The third section is the expectations module. The module starts with a training that helps respondents to state their subjective expectation in percent chance format, to think about counter-probabilities, and to give answers that are state dependent. After the training, respondents are asked about their perception of the risk of deportation in the last years.

The question is posed as such:
Out of 100 Afghans who arrived recently in Germany, how many do you think were deported (forcibly removed) and sent back to Afghanistan by the German authorities in the last past years?

Afterwards half of the respondents are provided with information about the actual statistics on the deportation level for the population in the years past 3 years, see above. The respondents who are provided the information are also asked if they find this statistic reliable. They are able to answer either "yes" or "no".

The subjective expectation about the perceived proportion of the population that will be deported in the next few years is elicited directly after and for all respondents. The remaining expectation outcomes are elicited through out the expectation module, following the treatment. Further modules on health, livelihood and integration follow this module.

2019-07-23

2019-12-14

The main outcomes of interest, and the questions eliciting them are as follows:

1- the perceived proportion of the population that will be deported in the next few years:
What do you think it [that is, the number of Afghans deported from Germany to Afghanistan] will be in the next 3 years?

2- the stated probability to stay in Germany:
What do you think is the percent chance that you would stay in Germany for the next 3 years?

3- the stated probability to stay in Germany even without the right to stay in Germany:
For this situation [No legal right to stay in Germany], what do you think is the percent chance that you would be sent back (deported) to Afghanistan within the following 3 years?

The information treatment is assigned to half of the population through a pseudo-random number generator provided by the survey software. The random number is drawn at the begin of the survey. When assigned to the treatment group, the treatment information appears on the computer screen for the interviewer to read. When assigned to the control group, the information does not appear. The interviewer where instructed during their training not to provide the information if it does not appear.

Randomization done in office by a computer

Individual

No

3 cities

700 individuals

350 individuals control, 350 treatment