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Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and a Representative Sample
Last registered on October 15, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and a Representative Sample
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004851
Initial registration date
October 13, 2019
Last updated
October 15, 2019 9:51 AM EDT
Location(s)
Region
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
University of Oxford
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
Additional Trial Information
Status
Completed
Start date
2019-03-01
End date
2019-08-01
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from standard DSGE models and VAR evidence and relatively homogeneous, there is strong heterogeneity among households. A substantial fraction of deviations of household predictions from expert predictions can be explained by the use of a simple affective heuristic.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Andre, Peter et al. 2019. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and a Representative Sample." AEA RCT Registry. October 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4851-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
People receive hypothetical vignettes with different scenarios for hypothetical shocks.
Intervention Start Date
2019-03-02
Intervention End Date
2019-07-30
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations about inflation and unemployment.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Different hypothetical scenarios about the oil price, government spending, taxation and federal funds interest rates.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
2000
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Respondents are assigned to 2 out of 4 vignettes.
Then they all complete the baseline vignette, but are randomly assigned to a rise or a fall scenario.
There was randomization to incentives in wave one of the experiment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
NA
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Post-Trial
Post Trial Information
Study Withdrawal
Intervention
Is the intervention completed?
No
Is data collection complete?
Data Publication
Data Publication
Is public data available?
No
Program Files
Program Files
Reports and Papers
Preliminary Reports
Relevant Papers