x

Please fill out this short user survey of only 3 questions in order to help us improve the site. We appreciate your feedback!
General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers in Kenya
Last registered on January 23, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0000505
Initial registration date
November 03, 2014
Last updated
January 23, 2021 8:52 PM EST
Location(s)

This section is unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access to this information.

Request Information
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley
PI Affiliation
UC San Diego
PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley
PI Affiliation
Princeton University
Additional Trial Information
Status
On going
Start date
2014-08-18
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
How redistribution affects the real economy is one of the central, unanswered questions in development economics. The effect of redistribution on the welfare of non-beneficiary households is theoretically ambiguous: there could be positive spillover effects through increased aggregate demand (a multiplier effect), or negative spillovers from price inflation or crowd-out by business expansion for non-beneficiaries. The NGO GiveDirectly provides large cash transfers to rural households in Kenya. We utilize an RCT to study the spillover effects of cash transfers on household welfare, prices, enterprise creation and local public finance and will make use of spatial variation in treatment density in order to estimate these effects.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Egger, Dennis et al. 2021. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. January 23. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.505-20.0.
Former Citation
Egger, Dennis et al. 2021. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. January 23. http://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/505/history/84470.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
The NGO GiveDirectly is responsible for the intervention; GiveDirectly provides large, unconditional cash transfers to poor households in rural Kenya. GiveDirectly identifies villages in which they are willing to work, and in order to facilitate research on cash transfers, these villages are randomly assigned to treatment or control status. Within treatment villages, GiveDirectly then identifies all households that meet their eligibility criteria, enrolls and verifies the eligibility of eligible households, and sends cash transfers to all eligible households via the mobile money system M-Pesa. Eligible households receive a one-time of around USD 1,000 made in a series of three payments.

This intervention will serve as the basis for the current study on general equilibrium effects, as well as a future study investigating long-term effects of cash transfers.
Intervention Start Date
2014-09-15
Intervention End Date
2016-07-15
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
The following are key outcome variables of interest: 1. Prices: how do prices evolve in response to an influx of cash into local economies? 2. Number of enterprises: how does the supply side change in response to a potential increase in demand due to redistribution? 3. Household welfare: how do household income and assets change in response to the cash transfers, both for direct beneficiaries and for non-beneficiaries in the study area? 4. Local public finance outcomes: are there changes in local fundraising for public goods?
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
The study will take place across 653 villages in Western Kenya. Villages are randomly allocated to treatment or control status. In treatment villages, GiveDirectly enrolls and distributes cash transfers to households that meet its eligibility criteria. In order to generate additional spatial variation in treatment density, groups of villages are assigned to high or low saturation. In high saturation zones, 2/3 of villages are targeted for treatment, while in low saturation zones, 1/3 of villages are targeted for treatment. The randomized assignment to treatment status and the spatial variation in treatment intensity will be used to identify direct and spillover effects of cash transfers.

The research team undertakes independent household censuses of treatment and control villages and makes their own judgment on whether households are eligible based on GiveDirectly's criteria. Households are then randomly selected to be surveyed by eligibility status (roughly 8 eligible households per village and 4 ineligible households). The research team also conducts a census of enterprises, enterprise surveys, market surveys and surveys with local leaders (including school principals) to collect data on prices, enterprise creation and local public finance.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomization to treatment status is conducted at the village level. High versus low saturation is randomly assigned to groups of villages based on their sublocation, an administrative unit above the village.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
653 villages
Sample size: planned number of observations
7,836 households (12 per village), 6,530 enterprises (this assumes an average of 10 enterprises per village; the exact number will depend on the number of enterprises in the study area).
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
328 treatment, 325 control.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

There are documents in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access to this information.

Request Information
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
University of California, Berkeley Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects
IRB Approval Date
2014-06-18
IRB Approval Number
2014-05-6354
IRB Name
Maseno University Ethics Review Committee
IRB Approval Date
2014-07-24
IRB Approval Number
MSU/DRPC/MUERC/000090/14
Analysis Plan
Analysis Plan Documents
Pre-Analysis Plan for Midline Data: General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers

MD5: 4754509542c5708c534572b25b48c896

SHA1: 7cf8418ce80b07209e03125ab46abb7f41013b50

Uploaded At: May 19, 2016

Pre-Analysis Plan: Local Public Finance and Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya

MD5: d62e66fa821827173fa97548d4245b94

SHA1: 597d1f966b273b44d53d3e2cd62afa2aa470ce7f

Uploaded At: February 12, 2017

Pre-analysis plan for household welfare analysis

MD5: a7273976ee9bff58ca68adf739c98b1c

SHA1: d9cfe7a3b68e204a99f68133c162c275c2673519

Uploaded At: July 06, 2017

Pre-analysis plan for household welfare analysis (updated)

MD5: 122de3f37647cceec0819c80c2a97a67

SHA1: 50035c883363cbea5b9823253453b3b8c9319d0b

Uploaded At: July 06, 2017

Pre-analysis plan for targeting analysis

MD5: 3e2dd968bcc331cfe80e8a4fa2c8aaa6

SHA1: de1f0b38d4cd3d2fdc31b8a6ecc8c63a734a6ee8

Uploaded At: September 01, 2017

Pre-analysis plan for household welfare analysis (updated)

MD5: 5d70f0a7521e438409511629d4acec73

SHA1: 1c1a4a17201d65267c2519d453cea98396dbae40

Uploaded At: September 01, 2017

General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: cac4bb9170691ec7daebb5b022d41d33

SHA1: 16a8892745155e05dcc6cf027c9eda42e30282fa

Uploaded At: June 21, 2018

General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Pre-Analysis Plan for Household Spillovers

MD5: 947945411ab1984b2bff28bd26fb4bcb

SHA1: d05550bbcf13d1be6d09572fcef37f6dde69101d

Uploaded At: June 21, 2018