x

Please fill out this short user survey of only 3 questions in order to help us improve the site. We appreciate your feedback!
Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice
Last registered on February 10, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005140
Initial registration date
December 03, 2019
Last updated
February 10, 2020 12:01 AM EST
Location(s)
Region
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Peking University
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
Additional Trial Information
Status
On going
Start date
2017-03-12
End date
2020-02-29
Secondary IDs
Abstract
The literature often treat time discounting as an inherent preferences and estimate it with the assumption that people can clearly foresee future situations. This paper investigates whether imperfect foresight affects intertemporal choice using three designs. We first exogenously introduce forecasting difficulty in the form of ambiguity in return of money allocated to a given period and find subjects avoid allocating money to this period. We then use summer vacation as the natural period of increased forecasting difficulty. Comparing the same intertemporal choice made by the same subject but at two different times relative to summer vacation, we find that subjects avoid allocating money to summer. After writing down their plans for summer vacation, subjects are more willing to allocate money to summer. These findings provide strong evidence on the role of imperfect foresight on time discounting.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Jin, Miao et al. 2020. "Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice." AEA RCT Registry. February 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5140-4.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2017-03-12
Intervention End Date
2020-02-29
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Intertemporal Choice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Embargoed at investigator's request.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer in office
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
185 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
Roughly 8,000 choices
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We have three experiments in total. In one experiment, we have randomization treatment:
In Summer Planning Experiment, 22 subjects in summer treatment and 21 subjects in semester treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
Ethics Committee at Peking University
IRB Approval Date
2015-12-21
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Post-Trial
Post Trial Information
Study Withdrawal
Intervention
Is the intervention completed?
No
Is data collection complete?
Data Publication
Data Publication
Is public data available?
No
Program Files
Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials
Relevant Paper(s)
REPORTS & OTHER MATERIALS