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Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy

Last registered on January 03, 2020
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Forecasting the Results of Economic Research
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005211
Initial registration date
December 26, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 03, 2020, 5:16 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
N/A; Online Survey

Primary Investigator

Name
Nicholas Otis
Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Stefano DellaVigna
PI Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Eva Vivalt
PI Affiliation
Australian National University
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2019-12-18
End date
2020-01-09
Keywords
Education, Health, Welfare
Additional Keywords
Forecasting, Priors, Field Experiments
JEL code(s)
C81, C93, D03
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of three field experiments. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
DellaVigna, Stefano, Nicholas Otis and Eva Vivalt. 2020. "Forecasting the Results of Economic Research." AEA RCT Registry. January 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5211-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Intervention Start Date
2019-12-18
Intervention End Date
2020-01-09

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Forecasts of experimental results for three studies preliminarily accepted as Registered Reports to the Journal of Development Economics.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
Randomization Unit
Randomization is an the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We plan to collect forecasts from at least 80 individuals.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We plan to collect forecasts from at least 80 individuals.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Our main treatments will have N/2 participants, where N is our total sample size.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects, University of California, Berkeley
IRB Approval Date
2019-11-20
IRB Approval Number
2019-10-12690
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials