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Field
Trial Title
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Before
Forecasting the Results of Economic Research
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After
Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy
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Field
Abstract
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Before
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of three field experiments. Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
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After
This study involves collecting forecasts of results of three field experiments. We randomly vary four features when eliciting forecasts: (1) small versus large reference values in an example preceding the predictions; (2) whether forecasts are in standard deviations or raw units; (3) slider versus text-entry responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds.
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Field
Last Published
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Before
January 03, 2020 05:16 PM
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After
January 06, 2020 07:13 PM
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Field
Intervention (Public)
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Before
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
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After
(1) small (0.1 SD) versus large (0.3 SD) reference values in an example preceding the predictions; (2) whether forecasts are in standard deviations or raw units; (3) slider versus text-entry responses; and (4) small (+-0.5 SD) versus large (+-1.0 SD) slider bounds.
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Field
Primary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
Forecasts of experimental results for three studies preliminarily accepted as Registered Reports to the Journal of Development Economics.
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After
Forecasts of experimental results for three studies preliminarily accepted as Registered Reports to the Journal of Development Economics.
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Field
Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
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After
We collect forecasts of the results of three experiments preliminarily accepted (before October 2019) that publicly posted their proposals, but that had not yet released any experimental results. We draw on a pool of academics, researchers, and practitioners. Consenting participants provide predictions for results of up to three studies. At the start of the survey, participants are randomized across the four conditions described in the “Interventions” section above.
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Field
Randomization Method
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Before
Further study information will be released after data collection has been completed to avoid the possibility of demand effects.
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After
Randomization takes place automatically when the survey is initiated.
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Field
Randomization Unit
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Before
Randomization is an the individual level.
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After
Randomization is at the individual level.
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