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Registration

Field Before After
Trial Status on_going completed
Last Published January 06, 2020 07:13 PM September 08, 2020 01:15 AM
Public Data URL https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/117601/version/V1/view
Is data available for public use? Yes
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Papers

Field Before After
Paper Abstract Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values, (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations, (3) text-entry versus slider responses, and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.
Paper Citation DellaVigna, S., Otis, N. and Vivalt, E., 2020. Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy. AEA Papers and Proceedings (Vol. 110, pp. 75-79).
Paper URL https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20201080
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