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Trial Title Impacts of free childcare program on women's labor market outcomes, children's health, and development The Impact of Free Childcare on Women's Labor Market Outcomes, Children's Development and Health
Abstract In recent years, Mongolia has experienced significant growth in the total fertility rate. Meanwhile, a female labor force participation rate has fallen. In 2015, women's participation rate in Ulaanbaatar was 46.6, 8.8 percentage points lower than the national average. Childcare was the primary reason for inactivity among women with 2-year-old children. In 2016, 36.2% were inactive due to childcare. The demand for childcare facilities has increased dramatically in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia. Because of the excess demand for public childcare services, the public lottery has been used as an effective and fair means of allocation of available slots since 2016. The public lottery creates an opportunity to evaluate the impact of the universally free public childcare program using a natural experiment framework. We will conduct a baseline survey and two follow up surveys to examine short and medium-term impacts. We focus on three outcomes of interest for employment: employment, earnings, and job quality. We also want to investigate the effects of the program on children's health and development, since daycare centers have adequate infrastructure, is staffed by professional teachers and provides appropriate nutrition. In recent years, Mongolia has experienced significant growth in the total fertility rate. The demand for childcare facilities has increased dramatically in Ulaanbaatar. Because of the excess demand for public childcare services, a public lottery has been used as an effective and fair means of allocating available slots since 2016. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the universally free public childcare program using a natural experiment framework. We will conduct a baseline survey and two follow up surveys to examine short and medium-term impacts. We focus on three outcomes of interest for employment: employment, earnings, and job quality. We also want to investigate the effects of the program on children's health and development.
Last Published February 07, 2020 01:36 PM April 15, 2020 07:20 PM
Intervention (Public) The intervention is a universally free childcare service for 2-5 years old children across the country, which was initiated during the former socialist system. The targeted population of this intervention is households with 2-year old children. The program has objectives to improve children's cognitive and communication skills and to increase women's labor force participation. However, the enrollment to the program is non-mandatory. The childcare service is provided throughout the academic year from September to May, five days a week, and eight hours a day. The government is a dominant provider of childcare service and fully subsidize public kindergartens. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sciences, and Sports (MECSS) is in charge of the overall design and implementation of the program. We anticipate that mothers who are being inactive due to childbearing could benefit from this government intervention and increase their chances of participating in the job market. On the other hand, children's cognitive and communication skills, and health are expected to improve by exposing them to well-developed educational programs suited to their age group and adequate nutritious food. The childcare service has been expanded rapidly in recent years. Nevertheless, the childcare service is highly demanded, with less than half of the eligible children are enrolled. Traditionally, free slots in public childcare centers were allocated on a first-come, first-served basis subject to eligibility criteria—permanent residential status and child age. However, in recent years, the demand for childcare services has increased dramatically in Ulaanbaatar, and the long queue outside the centers raised many issues. Hence, from 2016, the lottery was introduced to all public kindergartens with oversubscription. A new online registration process was introduced in 2017. According to the newly established procedure, parents who want to enroll their children in public childcare centers should complete the online registration within a month between the end of July and the end of August. Then the public lottery is organized simultaneously at the centers with oversubscriptions, open to the public under the monitoring of the board consists of representatives of parents, teachers, and officials from the local administrative units. The intervention is universally free childcare services for 2-5 years old children across the country. Childcare services are offered throughout the scholar year from September to May, five days a week, for eight hours a day. The program has objectives to improve children's cognitive and communication skills and to increase women's labor force participation. The government is the largest provider of childcare services and fully subsidizes public kindergartens. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sciences, and Sports (MECSS) is in charge of the overall design and implementation of the program. Childcare services are highly demanded, with less than half of the eligible children are enrolled. To tackle the excess of demand, a lottery was introduced in all public kindergartens with oversubscription in 2016. This enables us to study the impact of universally free public childcare service on maternal employment, children's health and development, using a natural experiment framework.
Primary Outcomes (Explanation) We look at several outcomes related to employment (current employment, employment in last year, seasonal employment, hourly wage, work hours, and formal employment). Current employment is a binary variable, equals 1 if a household member was employed in the last week for at least one hour or has a permanent job, or was employed in the private business. Employment in last year is a binary variable, equals 1 if household member satisfies the current employment condition plus if he/she employed for any job in the last year. Seasonal employment is a binary variable, equals 1 if household members worked 26 and fewer weeks in the last year. Hourly wage is the natural logarithm of the last month’s hourly wage when the survey is being conducted and zero for unemployed. Work hours are regular weekly work hours of respondents with a permanent job and zero for unemployed. Formal employment is measured as whether or not the respondent has a job with an employment contract. We examine several outcomes related to employment (current employment, employment in last year, seasonal employment, hourly wage, work hours, and formal employment). Current employment is a binary variable, equals 1 if a household member was employed in the last week for at least one hour or has a permanent job, or was employed in a private business. Employment in last year is a binary variable, equals 1 if household member satisfies the current employment condition plus if he/she employed for any job in the last year. Seasonal employment is a binary variable, equals 1 if household members worked 26 and fewer weeks in the last year. Hourly wage is the natural logarithm of the last month’s hourly wage when the survey is being conducted and zero for unemployed. Work hours are regular weekly work hours of respondents with a permanent job and zero for unemployed. We will also measure formal employment, which in Mongolia is defined by the existence of a written labor contract.
Experimental Design (Public) This study will evaluate the impact of free public childcare services on women’s labor market outcomes in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Comparable control and treatment groups necessary to estimate the effect of free public childcare services will be created using the public lottery run at childcare centers in August 2017. We will use registration data of childcare centers provided by the Metropolitan Education Department of Ulaanbaatar. For each childcare center, we will collect information on the total number of available slots, the total number of applicants and information on which district the childcare center is located, and whether the childcare center should run a public lottery. The baseline survey was administered between late August and October 2017. Also, we will use data from two households follow up surveys annually for two subsequent years. This study will evaluate the impact of free public childcare services on women’s labor market outcomes in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Comparable control and treatment groups necessary to estimate the effect of free public childcare services were created using the public lottery run at childcare centers in August 2017. We will use registration data of childcare centers provided by the Metropolitan Education Department of Ulaanbaatar. For each childcare center, we will collect information on the total number of available slots, the total number of applicants and information on which district the childcare center is located, and whether the childcare center should run a public lottery. The baseline survey was administered between late August and October 2017. Also, we will use data from two households follow up surveys annually for two subsequent years.
Planned Number of Observations We have planned to include 3500 applicants for the public childcare program. We have planned to include 3,500 applicants for the public childcare program.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms The sample size of the baseline survey was set at 3500 households with 2-year-old children of which we would assign 2300 to the treatment group and 1200 to the control group. The sample size of the baseline survey was set at 3,500 households with 2-year-old children of which we would assign 2,300 to the treatment group and 1,200 to the control group.
Power calculation: Minimum Detectable Effect Size for Main Outcomes Power calculations to determine sample size considered female employment as primary outcome. A sample size of 3500 would allow us to detect an increase of 7.4 percentage points in employment. We adjusted the sample for an estimated no show of 15% and contamination of 13%. Power calculations to determine sample size considered female employment as primary outcome. A sample size of 3,500 would allow us to detect an increase of 7.4 percentage points in employment at the power of 92% for a significance level of 5%. We expect a 'no show' of 15% and a contamination of 13%.
Secondary Outcomes (Explanation) We look at several outcomes related to children's health (number of cold/flu incidences, infectious disease, medication, and number of hospital visits). We will measure child development with total difficulties score (SDQ). We look at several outcomes related to children's health (number of cold/flu incidences, infectious disease, medication, and number of hospital visits). We will measure child development with total difficulties score (SDQ). The SDQ is a brief behavioral screening and psychological assessment tool for 2-17-year-olds. The questionnaire exists in several versions to meet the needs of researchers, clinicians, and educators and downloadable from the following link. https://www.sdqinfo.com
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Other Primary Investigators

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Affiliation World Bank The World Bank
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