The effect of exchange rate expectations on firm-level variables

Last registered on August 18, 2021
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The effect of exchange rate expectations on firm-level variables
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005700
Initial registration date
April 09, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 10, 2020, 11:46 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
August 18, 2021, 11:20 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Colombia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Juan Herreno
Affiliation
Columbia University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Mathieu Pedemonte
PI Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
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PI Name
Marc Hofstetter
PI Affiliation
Universidad de los Andes
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PI Name
Martha Elena Delgado
PI Affiliation
Fedesarrollo
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-06-01
End date
2021-06-30
Keywords
Firms & Productivity, Other
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomics, Expectations
JEL code(s)
E2, E3
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We seek to understand the reaction of firm managers to publicly-available information on expectations about nominal exchange rates and inflation expectations. Using a panel of firms, and a random assignment, we tell firm managers what are the expected values of exchange rates in the reports of the central bank. We inquire how firm managers update their expectations and decisions on a variety of firm-level outcomes.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Delgado, Martha Elena et al. 2021. "The effect of exchange rate expectations on firm-level variables." AEA RCT Registry. August 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5700-1.2000000000000002
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2020-06-01
Intervention End Date
2020-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Nominal Exchange Rate Expectations
Inflation Expectations
Employment Growth
Wage bill growth
Price Changes
Sales growth
Export growth
Input expenditure mix
Investment
Other expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Price Changes means the change in the unit value of the sales of the firm
Wage bill growth means the rate of growth of expenditures in labor controlling for composition
Employment growth means the change in employee counts at the firm or establishment level
Investment means change in stock of capital at the firm or establishment level
Sales means value of the products sold in the local and foreign market (exports)
Inputs expenditure means the value of the products used for production in the in the local and foreign market (imports)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will give short descriptions of public information stated in the monetary policy briefings produced by the central bank. These descriptions will be focused on the expectation of the central bank and professional forecasters about inflation and exchange rates. After providing this information to a randomly selected group of firm managers, we will ask about their inflation, exchange rate, and other business condition expectations, and link their responses to firm-level outcomes.
Experimental Design Details
We will create a control group where we will not provide any information.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Firm: firms will be assigned to a treatment, or control groups according to the randomization method stated before.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
500 firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
500 firm managers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
250 treatment
250 control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials