Pandemic, Presidential Politics, and Pro-Health Behavior

Last registered on May 05, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Pandemic, Presidential Politics, and Pro-Health Behavior
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005793
Initial registration date
May 04, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 05, 2020, 1:48 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
George Washington University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-05-04
End date
2020-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study consists of three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) designed to improve our understanding of the interaction between a pandemic health crisis and political behavior in an established democracy with a strong party system. The RCTs are embedded in an online survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,000 residents of the United States. The first RCT investigates three mechanisms through which the coronavirus pandemic might be impacting support for the U.S. President and for state governors. The second RCT investigates how the President’s public responses to the pandemic (as recalled by respondents, without reminding them of any specifics) are shaping people’s behaviors that are widely believed able to influence the spread of the virus. The third RCT considers whether different specific messages made by the President can change the likelihood of these behaviors relative to a control group and a group receiving message from doctors.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hale, Henry. 2020. "Pandemic, Presidential Politics, and Pro-Health Behavior." AEA RCT Registry. May 05. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5793-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents in different treatment groups (against a control) are presented with reading priming them to have certain considerations or authority figures in mind when reporting political and health-related behavior.
Intervention Start Date
2020-05-04
Intervention End Date
2020-05-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest in the first RCT are 6-point scales measuring voting intentions for the President and governors. The primary outcomes of interest in the second and third RCTs are 6-point scales on the likelihood that respondents will engage in certain health-related behaviors widely believed capable of influencing the spread of the virus.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The larger outcome of interest in the first RCT is the difference in patterns of responses between the control group, on the one hand, and the three treatment groups, on the other, and secondarily the difference between the three treatment groups. For the second RCT, the larger outcome of interest is the difference in patterns of answers between the treatment and control groups. For the third RCT, the larger outcomes of greatest interest include differences in the patterns of answers between: the groups getting the Presidential statements and the control group; the groups getting the Presidential statements and the group getting the doctors’ statements, the groups getting the two presidential statements, and the groups getting the doctors’ statements and the group getting the doctors’ statements and each of the Presidential statements. For the second and third RCTs, it will be important to take into account potential effect heterogeneity among subpopulations that are potentially most at risk (e.g., age) and thus more or less prone to consider the behaviors about which they are asked.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The text of the interview questions are attached to this registry. Respondents (subjects) will be drawn from the YouGov agency’s ongoing online survey panel in the US, being selected and interviewed according to their standard methodology. YouGov recruits its panelists through web advertising, permission-based email campaigns, partner sponsored solicitations, telephone-to-Web recruitment (RDD) sampling, and mail-to-Web recruitment based on voter registration. YouGov will select a sample of these people designed to be nationally representative (based on demographic and personal data that YouGov has already collected on them) and send them an email invitation to participate in the survey. Respondents take the survey online in whatever location they choose.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization of treatment assignments will be accomplished in the US using the randomization function in YouGov’s proprietary software.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 adult residents of the United States
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
For the first RCT, there will be one control group and three treatment groups, each one consisting of approximately 500 respondents. For the second RCT, there will be approximately 667 in the control group and 1,333 in the treatment group. For the third RCT, there will be one control group and five treatment groups, with approximately 333 respondents in each group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
George Washington University
IRB Approval Date
2020-05-01
IRB Approval Number
NCR202465
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials