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Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda
Last registered on July 16, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006158
Initial registration date
July 15, 2020
Last updated
July 16, 2020 3:33 PM EDT
Location(s)
Region
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Gaplink
PI Affiliation
RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research & University of Passau
PI Affiliation
University of Connecticut and RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
Additional Trial Information
Status
Completed
Start date
2008-07-01
End date
2008-09-30
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We provide evidence on the impact of the Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) on resilience against the COVID-19 shock. Our sample consists of 2,700 youth in northern Uganda that are part of a randomized controlled trial of YOP in 2008. The YOP program was initiated by the Ugandan government in 2006 and invited groups of young adults, aged between 16 and 35, to apply for the YOP program. The groups submitted proposals for grants of roughly $8,000 (or $400 per person) for starting individual skilled trades. Two previous studies show substantial effects on earnings after four years and lasting effects on assets, skilled labor, and whether recipients effectively owned their business after 9 years. Using phone survey data, we will estimate whether YOP beneficiaries are more resilient to the global pandemic and consequent economic shutdown. Our main research question is whether a cash-based employment program affects the long-term resilience of households to deal with an aggregate shock such as the COVID-19 lockdown. Our primary outcomes will be employment, income, and food security.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Aryemo, Filder et al. 2020. "Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda." AEA RCT Registry. July 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6158-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
To increase employment in northern Uganda, the government rolled out the Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) to help poor and unemployed adults become self-employed artisans. The government invited young adults to form groups and prepare proposals for how they would use a grant to train in and start independent trades. Funding was randomly assigned among 535 screened, eligible applicant groups consisting of both men and women. Successful proposals received one-time unsupervised grants worth $7,500 on average—about $382 per group member, roughly their average annual income. Treatment and control groups were surveyed at baseline and two and four years after the intervention.
Intervention Start Date
2008-07-01
Intervention End Date
2008-09-30
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Employment, Income, and food security
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
subjective resilience, subjective wellbeing, business resilience, farming resilience, safety nets, savings, and remittances
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
We will survey respondents that are part of the randomized controlled trial and test whether YOP affects resilience against the COVID-19 shock. The randomization of YOP will allow us to causally identify the impact of receiving the YOP grant on our primary and secondary outcomes.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Group eligible to receive grant, stratified by district.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
535 eligible grant groups
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,700
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
265 treatment (received grant), 270 control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION IRB
IRB Approval Date
2020-06-27
IRB Approval Number
12114
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial
Post Trial Information
Study Withdrawal
Intervention
Is the intervention completed?
No
Is data collection complete?
Data Publication
Data Publication
Is public data available?
No
Program Files
Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials
Relevant Paper(s)
REPORTS & OTHER MATERIALS