Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda

Last registered on July 16, 2020
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006158
Initial registration date
July 15, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 16, 2020, 3:33 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Uganda
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Julian Rose
Affiliation
RWI - Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Filder Aryemo
PI Affiliation
Gaplink
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Jörg Peters
PI Affiliation
RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research & University of Passau
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Nathan Fiala
PI Affiliation
University of Connecticut and RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2008-07-01
End date
2008-09-30
Keywords
Labor
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
I15, O12, J24, D13
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We provide evidence on the impact of the Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) on resilience against the COVID-19 shock. Our sample consists of 2,700 youth in northern Uganda that are part of a randomized controlled trial of YOP in 2008. The YOP program was initiated by the Ugandan government in 2006 and invited groups of young adults, aged between 16 and 35, to apply for the YOP program. The groups submitted proposals for grants of roughly $8,000 (or $400 per person) for starting individual skilled trades. Two previous studies show substantial effects on earnings after four years and lasting effects on assets, skilled labor, and whether recipients effectively owned their business after 9 years. Using phone survey data, we will estimate whether YOP beneficiaries are more resilient to the global pandemic and consequent economic shutdown. Our main research question is whether a cash-based employment program affects the long-term resilience of households to deal with an aggregate shock such as the COVID-19 lockdown. Our primary outcomes will be employment, income, and food security.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Aryemo, Filder et al. 2020. "Resilience and recovery: The economic impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector in Uganda." AEA RCT Registry. July 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6158-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
To increase employment in northern Uganda, the government rolled out the Youth Opportunities Program (YOP) to help poor and unemployed adults become self-employed artisans. The government invited young adults to form groups and prepare proposals for how they would use a grant to train in and start independent trades. Funding was randomly assigned among 535 screened, eligible applicant groups consisting of both men and women. Successful proposals received one-time unsupervised grants worth $7,500 on average—about $382 per group member, roughly their average annual income. Treatment and control groups were surveyed at baseline and two and four years after the intervention.
Intervention Start Date
2008-07-01
Intervention End Date
2008-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Employment, Income, and food security
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
subjective resilience, subjective wellbeing, business resilience, farming resilience, safety nets, savings, and remittances
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will survey respondents that are part of the randomized controlled trial and test whether YOP affects resilience against the COVID-19 shock. The randomization of YOP will allow us to causally identify the impact of receiving the YOP grant on our primary and secondary outcomes.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Group eligible to receive grant, stratified by district.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
535 eligible grant groups
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,700
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
265 treatment (received grant), 270 control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION IRB
IRB Approval Date
2020-06-27
IRB Approval Number
12114
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials