Health and economic impact of the covid-19 crisis in South Africa and Brazil: exploring experiences, perceptions and policy preferences

The Covid19 epidemic is evolving quickly, and so are the related policies and individual behaviours. After introducing various levels of “lockdown” (at the national level for South Africa, and at the local level for Brazil) to reduce the number of covid19 infections, Brazil and South Africa have eased most of these restrictions, partly to preserve peoples’ economic livelihoods. Both countries have since experienced sharp increases in new cases, while the same levels of restrictions are unlikely to be re-introduced given their high economic costs (and lack of effect in Brazil). Hence, the main barriers against the propagation of the virus will probably consist of individuals’ capacity to comply with key public health recommendations (wearing a mask, avoiding public transport, avoiding close proximity with others, etc.), some of which have proved difficult to sustain. Using a survey experience to test the causal impact of optimism vs. pessimism over the availability of a vaccine in the near future, we examine the effect of vaccine duration on perceived effects of health and mortality, the self-reported willingness to comply with a range of social distancing measures over time and preferences for policy.