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Abstract The purpose of this study is to understand how people behave if they feel uncertainty over their preferences. There are no right or wrong answers in this experiment. Subjects only need to make the choice that they feel most comfortable with. In the experiment, subjects will be able to make some money. The payment has two parts: 1) payment for each correctly answered control questions; 2) payment of one selected question. After the experiment, one question will be selected to determine the subject's payment in this part. We will explain the entire choice pattern in experiments of preference reversals by combining deliberate randomization with valuation uncertainty. In the experiment, we elicit each subject’s randomization probability between P-bet and $-Bet and valuation uncertainty over the two bets. We also repeat the standard preference reversal experiment. We will show that the choice probabilities calculated from randomization probability and valuation uncertainty can predict the subject’s choice pattern in the preference-reversal experiment.
Trial Start Date November 10, 2020 June 29, 2021
Trial End Date December 31, 2020 July 06, 2021
Last Published October 26, 2020 02:16 PM June 29, 2021 07:30 AM
Intervention Start Date November 10, 2020 June 30, 2021
Intervention End Date November 15, 2020 July 05, 2021
Primary Outcomes (End Points) valuation uncertainty intervals and choice probabilities due to incomparability Randomization probability between P-bet and $-bet Valuation uncertainty over the two bets Standard choice pattern in the preference-reversal experiment.
Experimental Design (Public) There are four main parts in our experiment. Each part contains several choices. In each choice, subjects need to choose the preferred option. The purpose of our experiment is to repeat the standard preference reversal experiment and measure subjects' uncertainty when they make choices. There are four parts in our experiment. In the first part, we repeat the standard preference reversal experiment. In the second part and third part, we elicit the subjects’ randomization probability and valuation uncertainty. We further elicit decision confidence using standard self-reports. In the last part, we obtain the subjects’ loss aversion and ambiguity attitudes.
Randomization Method randomization done in laboratory by a computer randomization done in laboratory by computer
Keyword(s) Behavior, Finance Behavior, Finance
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