Motivated Pessimism

Last registered on September 18, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Motivated Pessimism
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006463
Initial registration date
September 17, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 18, 2020, 10:27 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Pittsburgh

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-10-18
End date
2022-10-17
Secondary IDs
Abstract
I propose an experiment to elicit motivated pessimism about external factors and its effect on entry and effort in repeated rounds of a real-effort task. The task is a simple typing exercise in which effort is difficult to measure precisely and the production function relating the task to payoffs is partially stochastic. This experiment is built on a conceptual framework with three types of beliefs formed by an individual following an unexpected outcome: “personal accountability” beliefs which attribute outcomes to an individual’s own performance, “temporary external accountability” beliefs which attribute outcomes to temporary bouts of luck but do not change their beliefs about future outcomes, and “persistent external accountability” beliefs which attribute outcomes to external factors and expect those external factors to have a similar effect on subsequent stages of the same decision environment. "Persistent external accountability” beliefs disincentivize effort and induce premature exit.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hyde, Kelly. 2020. "Motivated Pessimism." AEA RCT Registry. September 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6463-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2020-10-18
Intervention End Date
2022-10-17

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Likelihood of pessimistic beliefs and willingness to engage in repeated stages of a real-effort task
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Intensity of effort in a real-effort task
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study comprises three stages. In the first, participants will be asked to complete a simple typing task. At the end of the first round of the task, participants' beliefs about the task will be elicited. Information will then be revealed to participants, after which more beliefs will be elicited regarding the task. In the second stage, I will elicit participants' willingness to accept (WTA) to forego the second round of the task and any associated earnings. Participants who enter the third stage, based on the realization of their choice in the second stage, will complete another round of the task for payment.
Experimental Design Details
The study comprises three stages. In the first, participants will be asked to complete a simple typing task in which arrows will be presented on the screen and the participant will need to press the corresponding arrow key on their keyboard to proceed. These arrows will appear at random locations on the screen so that the task will require focus and effort. Ego relevance will be induced by informing participants that faster reactions to the arrows appearing will result in higher output on the task and providing examples of the real-life benefits of having quick reflexes. Participants will be informed that they will be paid a particular piece rate per arrow key pressed, and that piece rate will either be the same for everyone or will be randomly, independently assigned to each participant, with equal probability of each scenario. However, participants will not know which piece rate they have been assigned, and they will not be informed of how many arrows they have pressed successfully while the task is in progress. They will proceed with the task for 5 minutes.

At the end of the first round of the task, participants will be asked how many arrows they believe they completed, and how they expect their earnings to compare to other participants' based on each possible piece rate structure. Then, participants will be informed of their total earnings from the round (not the number of tasks they completed or the piece rate they were assigned), and the relative rank of their earnings relative to the earnings of all other participants in the session. (For example, participants will see a screen that says "you earned $7.55 in this round, which ranks 10th out of the 32 participants in the session.") After learning of their total earnings, participants will be asked in an incentivized way if they believe the assigned piece rate was equal for all participants or randomly determined for each participant. If they believe the payment was different for each participant, they will be asked if they believe their randomly assigned piece rate was less than or greater than the expected value of the distribution from which the piece rates were drawn.

In the second stage, I will elicit participants' willingness to accept (WTA) to forego the second round of the task and any associated earnings. This will be done with a price list where each row asks the participant to choose between receiving a certain amount of money or entering the second round of the task. Then one row of the list will be randomly selected for implementation.

Participants who enter the third stage, based on the realization of their choice in the second stage, will complete another 5-minute round of the task for payment. Those who did not enter will be asked to wait for the third stage to conclude. Then, upon conclusion of the third stage, each participant's final payment will be revealed to them privately, and participants will be paid.

Based on the conceptual framework, the study is designed to test the following hypotheses: (1) individuals who overestimate their task output will be more likely to believe their assigned piece rate was random and less than the expected value of the distribution; (2) individuals' WTA will be decreasing in the difference between their expected and realized earnings; and (3) conditional on entering the third stage, disappointed individuals (those for whom actual earnings in stage 1 << their perceived output x the expected value of the piece rate) will differentially decrease their intensity of effort, as measured by their average reaction time to press an arrow key.
Randomization Method
Randomization by computer (oTree)
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 individuals fixed piece rate, 100 individuals randomly assigned piece rate
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials