Experts and Epidemics

Last registered on October 09, 2020
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Experts and Epidemics
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006570
Initial registration date
October 08, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 09, 2020, 9:03 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Niklas Potrafke
Affiliation
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Klaus Gründler
PI Affiliation
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-03-05
End date
2020-04-03
Keywords
Behavior, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Do experts adjust their policy recommendations when the facts change? We conduct a randomized experiment among 1,224 economic experts across 109 countries
with two treatments. The first treatment is variation in the initial spread of Covid-
19 during March 2020. The second treatment informs experts about their countries’ past macroeconomic performance. Greater exposure to Covid-19 decreases
the probability to recommend contractionary fiscal policies. A better macroeconomic performance increases the probability to implement contractionary policies
and reduces the exposure effect to Covid-19. Sentiment analyses suggest that the
policy recommendations are caused by Bayesian information up-dating and not by
changes in preferences.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gründler, Klaus and Niklas Potrafke. 2020. "Experts and Epidemics." AEA RCT Registry. October 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6570-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2020-03-05
Intervention End Date
2020-04-03

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Recommendation to introduce fiscal rules
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our randomized experiment includes two treatments. The first treatment is the geographic and temporal spread of Covid-19. The second treatment is an information treatment that we randomly assign to survey particpants. The experts in our
survey are randomly split into two groups of roughly equal size that were sent two versions
of the survey. One group, which we refer to as the control group, was asked \Suppose
there would be no fiscal rule in the country you work in (if there is none, then consider
the current situation). Would you recommend introducing one?". The other group of
panelists, which we refer to as the treatment group, instead received the question \Over
the last five years, real per capita GDP growth was on average [growth rate] per year in
[requested country]. Suppose there would be no fiscal rule in the country you work in
(if there is none, then consider the current situation). Would you recommend introducing
one?". The average real per capita GDP growth rate over the past five years [growth
rate] is individualized for each expert and refers to the experts’ host country [requested
country]. In 78% of cases, the expert’s host country is also their country of origin. Data
on GDP is collected from World Bank (2020)
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual experts
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
1224
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
35%
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials