Anticipatory cash transfers in climate disaster response

Last registered on December 19, 2022

View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Anticipatory cash transfers in climate disaster response

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0006576

Initial registration date

November 29, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

November 30, 2020, 11:32 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

December 19, 2022, 11:08 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

Bangladesh

Region

Jamuna River

Primary Investigator

Name

Ashley Pople

Affiliation

University of Oxford

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Stefan Dercon

PI Affiliation

University of Oxford

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Ruth Hill

PI Affiliation

Centre for Disaster Protection

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2020-07-04

End date

2023-12-22

Keywords

Environment & Energy, Finance & Microfinance

Additional Keywords

Climate Change

JEL code(s)

D12, O12, Q54

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Monsoon flooding has become more intense in recent years due to climate change and surpasses the ability of communities to cope, leading to the loss of livelihoods, assets and lives. It is often possible to predict severe monsoon flooding events. A targeted anticipatory approach has the promise to offer a more timely and effective solution that reduces the effects of the shock on household economic outcomes and welfare. In July 2020, the United Nations piloted a novel approach to humanitarian financing by employing a data-driven forecast to predict excess flooding along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh. This forecast was used to trigger the release of cash transfers worth $53 to 22,434 affected households a few days prior to the flooding shock. We evaluate the effect of an anticipatory cash transfer on household behaviour and outcomes during one of the most severe and protracted flooding events in decades.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Dercon, Stefan, Ruth Hill and Ashley Pople. 2022. "Anticipatory cash transfers in climate disaster response." AEA RCT Registry. December 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6576-1.2

Sponsors & Partners

Partner

Name

Data Analysis and Technical Assistance Limited (DATA)

Type

private_company

URL

https://www.databd.org

Name

United Nations World Food Programme (WFP)

Type

government

URL

Name

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Type

government

URL

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

In the traditional policy model, a negative shock first occurs, which triggers a policy response to address the materialised need. In contrast, an anticipatory action approach provides a policy response to a risk in anticipation of a future need and enables households to cope with the shock on their own terms. This approach combines a robust forecasting and decision-making framework with established implementation plans and pre-arranged cash transfers. We expect an anticipatory action approach to reduce the effects of a shock on household economic outcomes and welfare.

The World Food Programme (WFP) at the United Nations piloted an anticipatory cash transfer in response to climate disasters in June to July 2020, drawing on $2.8 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF). A forecast triggered the release of unconditional cash transfers of 4,500 taka (ca. $53) by WFP to 22,434 vulnerable households in five districts along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh. Households received anticipatory cash transfers on 14, 15, 16, 18 and 30 July.

Intervention Start Date

2020-07-14

Intervention End Date

2020-07-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

We are interested in four primary outcomes: (1) pre-emptive actions taken to reduce the impact of flooding, (2) child food consumption, (3) adult food consumption; and (4) wellbeing. Our pre-analysis plan provides more detail on the construction of these primary outcome variables.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

We exploit a natural experiment to explore whether anticipatory cash transfers mitigate the effects of a flooding shock on household economic outcomes and welfare. Our treatment group received the anticipatory cash transfer via their mobile money account just prior to and after the forecasted flood peak, i.e., on 14, 15, 16 and 30 July 2020. The control group of households received no cash transfer and were excluded from the intervention owing to having an incorrect mobile wallet account or frozen bKash wallet.

We sample households in over 100 unions across four districts along the Jamuna River. We conducted phone surveys with 8,488 households ten to twelve weeks after the intervention between 21 September and 8 October 2020.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

WFP selected beneficiaries using eligibility criteria. We exploit the
exogenous variation induced by administrative hurdles encountered by our implementation partner that prevented similar households from receiving the intervention.

Randomization Unit

Household

Was the treatment clustered?