The US-presidential elections 2020 and economic expectations of international experts: A survey RCT

Last registered on November 10, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The US-presidential elections 2020 and economic expectations of international experts: A survey RCT
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006674
Initial registration date
October 28, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 29, 2020, 7:19 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
November 10, 2020, 7:47 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-10-29
End date
2020-11-13
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We investiage how the outcome of the US-presidential election on 3 November 2020 influences experts' economic expectations. We ask more than 1600 economic experts of more than 120 countries about their expectations regarding gdp growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. We randomly split the sample in two balanced subsamples. Half of the participants are surveyed five days before the election (group 1), half of the participants are surveyed five days after the election (group 2). This setup follows randomized control trial (RCT) standards. Our survey is software-based and participants fill out the questionaire online.
Our study relates to studies on political and economic uncertainty and expectations of economic experts. We expect that uncertainty gives rise to a negative economic outlook. This implies that group 1 has more pessimistic / less optimistic economic expectations than group 2. However, if Trump should win the US-presidential election we expect that economic expectations decline. While a presidential win for Trump would resolve the election uncertainty it would simultaneously create uncertainties about American (economic) policies in the next 4 years.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Boumans, Dorine et al. 2020. "The US-presidential elections 2020 and economic expectations of international experts: A survey RCT." AEA RCT Registry. November 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6674-1.2000000000000002
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2020-10-29
Intervention End Date
2020-11-13

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Experts' economic expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experimental design will be made public when the survey is completed.
Experimental Design Details
We investiage how the outcome of the US-presidential election on 3 November 2020 influences experts' economic expectations. We ask more than 1600 economic experts of more than 120 countries about their expectations regarding gdp growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. We randomly split the sample in two balanced subsamples. Half of the participants are surveyed five days before the election (group 1), half of the participants are surveyed five days after the election (group 2). This setup follows randomized control trial (RCT) standards. Our survey is software-based and participants fill out the questionaire online.
Our study relates to studies on political and economic uncertainty and expectations of economic experts. We expect that uncertainty gives rise to a negative economic outlook. This implies that group 1 has more pessimistic / less optimistic economic expectations than group 2. However, if Trump should win the US-presidential election we expect that economic expectations decline. While a presidential win for Trump would resolve the election uncertainty it would simultaneously create uncertainties about American (economic) policies in the next 4 years.
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual experts
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1600 experts
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1600 experts
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics committee
IRB Approval Date
2020-10-28
IRB Approval Number
N/A

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials