Climate and Resilience Impact Evaluation Window: Experimental Evidence from Several Countries

Last registered on June 20, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Climate and Resilience Impact Evaluation Window: Experimental Evidence from Several Countries
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006851
Initial registration date
December 09, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 10, 2020, 12:25 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
June 20, 2022, 8:39 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
World Bank

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
American University
PI Affiliation
World Food Programme, OEV
PI Affiliation
World Food Programme, OEV
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME
PI Affiliation
World Bank, DIME

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2020-11-30
End date
2025-12-01
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The concept of resilience has gained attention because it recognises the importance of addressing shorter-term humanitarian needs while simultaneously supporting communities to face future crises induced by climate change, conflict, and other factors. Many institutions, including the World Food Programme (WFP), have increasingly used the concept as a basis for their programming. WFP's integrated packages of interventions aim to improve food security and nutrition by smoothing food consumption in the short-term, while supporting livelihoods and addressing barriers to development (e.g., better climate information, access to markets, education, WASH, etc.) in the long-term. While all programme activities are potentially important for building resilience, livelihood activities are clearly connected to both immediate and future wellbeing. These activities include cash or in-kind transfers to the household and support for creating assets that could benefit the household or the community in the future. Therefore, livelihood activities have the potential to support households in improving and maintaining their wellbeing when facing future shocks and stressors.

This pre-analysis plan describes policy experiments to estimate the impacts of experimentally varying WFP's activities on resilience as measured by community and household wellbeing. This approach follows others in conceptualizing resilience through changes in wellbeing (Knippenberg et al, 2019, Phadera et al. 2019, Jones and Tanner, 2017; Barrett et al, 2020). We design and run these experiments in the context of livelihoods programs implemented by the World Food Programme (WFP) across 6 countries. Beyond testing the overall impact of livelihood activities on wellbeing, a key ambition of this paper is to investigate whether activities themselves can be timed to accommodate households’ vulnerability to seasonal fluctuations and shocks that are often connected to weather patterns and agricultural cycle. We identify two such mechanisms: adjusting the timing of cash transfers and labor requirements; and/or allowing for re-targeting participants over time to account for changes in vulnerability status.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Christian, Paul et al. 2022. "Climate and Resilience Impact Evaluation Window: Experimental Evidence from Several Countries." AEA RCT Registry. June 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6851
Sponsors & Partners

Sponsors

Partner

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We implement a multi-country study of WFP's resilience program. These programs typically englobe a wide set of multi-sector activities, such as livelihood support, and nutrition, health as well as education components.
Intervention Start Date
2021-01-01
Intervention End Date
2025-12-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Consumption and Food Security; Time-use; Assets; Income Generating Activities; Shocks and Coping Mechanisms; Financial Outcomes; Migration; Psycho-social Well Being; Women's Empowerment; Social Capital, Safety-nets; Reservation Wages.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We design an RCT that measures the impact of the WFP resilience program on welfare dynamics. To this end, villages are randomly allocated to two treatment arms and a control group. In the first treatment arm (UCT), WFP provides unconditional cash transfers to households. In the second treatment arm (CCT), WFP provides their cash-for asset program to selected beneficiaries. We compare CCT to control to isolate the benefits of a livelihood program on welfare dynamics. We compare the UCT to the CCT to understand whether the positive returns from the asset outweigh the costs that come from having to invest additional labor. In doing so we are able to isolate the benefit of assets on their own.

Beyond testing the overall impact of resilience and livelihood activities on wellbeing, a key ambition of this paper is to investigate whether activities themselves can be timed to accommodate households’ vulnerability to seasonal fluctuations and shocks that are often connected to weather patterns and agricultural cycle. We identify two such mechanisms: adjusting the timing of cash transfers and labor requirements; and/or allowing for re-targeting participants over time to account for changes in vulnerability status.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Both private randomizations done in office by a computer and public lotteries
Randomization Unit
Village level randomization, with possible clustered approach in some areas (groups of villages)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Approximately 200 villages per country (1,200 villages total)
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 20 to 30 households per village (18,000 to 24,000 households)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We plan to implement all treatment arms where ever possible, with the following estimate sample size per treatment arm:

-UCT: 50 villages per country (300 villages total)
-CCT coupled: 25 villages per country (150 villages total)
-CCT decoupled: 25 villages per country (150 villages total)
-Control: 100 villages per country (600 villages total)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Solutions IRB
IRB Approval Date
2020-11-12
IRB Approval Number
Protocol #2020/09/12
Analysis Plan

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