Determinants of ‘Mobilisation’ at Home & Abroad: Analysing the Micro-Foundations of Out-Migration & Mass Protest

Last registered on January 19, 2021
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Determinants of ‘Mobilisation’ at Home & Abroad: Analysing the Micro-Foundations of Out-Migration & Mass Protest
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0006956
Initial registration date
January 18, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 19, 2021, 6:22 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Argentina
Region
Country
Morocco
Region
Country
Poland
Region
Country
Ukraine
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
David Doyle
Affiliation
University of Oxford
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jacquelien Van Stekelenburg
PI Affiliation
Vrije Universiteit
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PI Name
Sorana Toma
PI Affiliation
ENSAE
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PI Name
Gwendoyln Sasse
PI Affiliation
ZOIS
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Olga Onuch
PI Affiliation
University of Manchester
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PI Name
Evelyn Ersanilli
PI Affiliation
UVA
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-11-26
End date
2021-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Governance
Additional Keywords
Protest, migration
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Connecting theoretical expectations from the migration and protest literatures, the MOBILISE project examines: a) whether similar factors drive the choice to migrate and/or protest at the individual level; b) how context affects this mobilisation; c) whether these choices are independent of each other or mutually reinforcing/ undermining.

As one part of the larger MOBILISE survey, fielded in four countries, we embed a framing experiment, which is interested in exploring whether different contexts or different issues will mobilise individuals to protest or migrate. We randomly assign respondents to one of four groups, and each group is asked whether they would consider protesting or migrating (in addition to letter writing and voting), when the problems of the country are framed in the context of government repression, economic issues, or representative problems (in addition to a control).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Doyle, David et al. 2021. "Determinants of ‘Mobilisation’ at Home & Abroad: Analysing the Micro-Foundations of Out-Migration & Mass Protest ." AEA RCT Registry. January 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6956-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
As one part of the larger MOBILISE survey, fielded in four countries, we embed a framing experiment, which is interested in exploring whether different contexts or different issues will mobilise individuals to protest or migrate. We wish to understand whether individuals will decide to protest or migrate, or engage with the government, in response to different contexts. That is, whether the issues or context of the country at a given moment, can change the calculus to exit, to express voice, or express loyalty.
Intervention Start Date
2020-11-26
Intervention End Date
2021-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The type of political behavior respondents would consider in response to framing of the main perceived issues facing their country.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The primary outcomes will be the reported behaviors considered by respondents at the individual level. These will be aggregated into the mean number of choices for joining a political party, participating in protests against the government, writing a letter to a politician, voting at the next election or emigrating to another country by each of the four randomly assigned groups (that is, the control and the three treatments).

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We also examine the choices made by each respondent at the individual level.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomly assign respondents in the MOBILISE survey to one of four groups, and each group is asked whether they would consider protesting or migrating, in addition to letter writing and voting, when the problems of the country are framed in a particular manner.

The control group, when prompted that their country faces many problems, are asked whether they would consider any of the following actions: joining a political party, participating in protests against the government, writing a letter to a politician, voting at the next election or emigrating to another country.

The three treatment groups, also prompt respondents to consider the many problems facing their countries, but these problems are framed in the context of government repression (treatment 1), scarcity of jobs (treatment 2), and civil representation (treatment 3).

Experimental Design Details
The sample is randomly assigned to one of four groups - a control group or one of three treatment groups.

The first of these groups is the CONTROL group. They will be asked:

"Our country faces many different problems. I’m going to show you a list of things that people might consider to tackle these problems. Please tell me WHICH of the following things you would personally consider to solve these problems." SEVERAL ANSWERS ARE POSSIBLE

Join a political party
Participate in protests against the government
Write a letter to a politician
Vote at the next election
Leave for good (emigrate) to another country
H/S 97 REF 98


The second of these groups is the TREATMENT [REPRESSION] group. They will be asked:

"Our country faces many different problems. For example, some people believe that the government is cracking down more and more on its own citizens. I’m going to show you a list of things that people might consider to tackle these problems. Please tell me WHICH of the following things you would personally consider to solve this problem." SEVERAL ANSWERS ARE POSSIBLE

Join a political party
Participate in protests against the government
Write a letter to a politician
Vote at the next election
Leave for good (emigrate) to another country
H/S 97 REF 98


The third of these groups is the TREATMENT [ECONOMY] group. They will be asked:

"Our country faces many different problems. For example, some people believe that it is becoming more difficult to get a proper, well-paying job or even to earn a proper income. I’m going to show you a list of things that people might consider totackle these problems. Please tell me WHICH of the following things you would personally consider to solve this problem." SEVERAL ANSWERS ARE POSSIBLE

Join a political party
Participate in protests against the government
Write a letter to a politician
Vote at the next election
Leave for good (emigrate) to another country
H/S 97 REF 98


The fourth of these groups is the TREATMENT [REPRESENTATION] group. They will be asked:

"Our country faces many different problems. For example, some people believe that it is harder for the middle and working classes to have their voices heard in the country today or to have proper representation in the government. I’m going to show you a list of things that people might consider to tackle these problems. Please tell me WHICH of the following things you would personally consider to solve this problem."
SEVERAL ANSWERS ARE POSSIBLE

Join a political party
Participate in protests against the government
Write a letter to a politician
Vote at the next election
Leave for good (emigrate) to another country
H/S 97 REF 98
Randomization Method
Done by computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,400 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,400 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
350 individuals each n the control and one of three treatments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
IRB Approval Date
2018-11-20
IRB Approval Number
RERC/18-11-20
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials