FISCAL POLICY AND HOUSEHOLDS’ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Last registered on February 24, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
FISCAL POLICY AND HOUSEHOLDS’ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007252
Initial registration date
February 24, 2021
Last updated
February 24, 2021, 10:30 AM EST

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Texas at Austin

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2018-12-01
End date
2018-12-30
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber. 2021. "FISCAL POLICY AND HOUSEHOLDS’ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS." AEA RCT Registry. February 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7252-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2018-12-01
Intervention End Date
2018-12-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations of inflation, government spending, government revenues, debt
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents are randomly assigned to one of seven groups. One is control group that receives no information. The six other groups receive information either about inflation or fiscal variables/projections for the U.S. We then study how their expectations about both inflation and fiscal outcomes change relative to their pre-treatment priors.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Nielsen
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
7
Sample size: planned number of observations
25,000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
3,000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials