Covid-19 and Politics in Ukraine

Last registered on April 20, 2021


Trial Information

General Information

Covid-19 and Politics in Ukraine
Initial registration date
April 16, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 20, 2021, 6:30 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.



Primary Investigator

George Washington University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
ZOiS Berlin
PI Affiliation
University of Manchester
PI Affiliation
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Additional Trial Information

In development
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
This study consists of one survey-embedded randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to replicate part of a previous study, which found the pandemic creating a “reverse rally effect,” and probe related patterns further to explore mechanisms, robustness, and the impact of possible changes of context since the original study.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Hale, Henry et al. 2021. "Covid-19 and Politics in Ukraine." AEA RCT Registry. April 20.
Experimental Details


This is a four-arm experiment, with a question serving as the treatment. The first group serves as a control and is not asked the first question at all. The other three groups each receive a question asking people to reflect on a different consideration linked to the COVID-19 pandemic: the spread of virus itself, the spread of the virus framed as a threat to the nation, and the spread of the virus framed as a global event in which the incumbent president is leading the country’s efforts to fend off the threats it poses. The three treatment groups are each asked to give the word that first comes to mind when thinking about the consideration read to them.
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome of interest is a 4-point scale of job approval for the president. For the purposes of exploring robustness (whether effects extend beyond the president and if so, how far), we also ask analogous job approval questions about the following political leaders: prime minister and mayor (head of the executive branch for the largest municipality in which one lives).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The outcome of primary interest is the difference in average response on the 4-point scale between the control group and the group getting the “national threat” prime (the core of the replication). Also of special interest will be the analogous difference between the other treatment groups and the control, the difference between the “national threat” group and the “simple covid” group, and the difference between the “presidential leadership” group and the “national threat” group.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment is embedded in a regular “omnibus” survey of the highly reputable Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The survey is based on a stratified random sample designed to be nationally representative. Interviews will be conducted by phone using the CATI method.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization in the assignment of respondents to control and treatment groups is achieved through the randomization function in KIIS’s survey software.
Randomization Unit
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 adult residents of Ukraine
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 500 respondents per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Manchester University Research Ethics Committee 3
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials