Conservative Values and Term Limits

Last registered on January 01, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Conservative Values and Term Limits
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007574
Initial registration date
April 18, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 20, 2021, 6:34 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 01, 2026, 1:22 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Russian Federation
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Henry Hale
Affiliation
George Washington University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-04-26
End date
2021-12-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
conservatism, authoritarianism, values, political economy, LGBTQ+, referendums, term limits, Russia
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study includes a survey-embedded experiment to assess the degree to which conservative/traditional values and/or economic promises can help generate public support for eliminating term limits in authoritarian systems, focusing on the case of Russia’s 2020 constitutional reform and plebiscite.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hale, Henry. 2026. "Conservative Values and Term Limits." AEA RCT Registry. January 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7574-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study includes, along with a series of direct survey questions, one survey-embedded priming experiment.
Intervention (Hidden)
This study includes, along with a series of direct survey questions posed to samples of adults in the Russian Federation designed to be representative of the country as a whole and of six of its regions individually, a four-arm survey-embedded priming experiment. A control group gets no prime, while the the three treatment groups are primed to recall one of three changes to the constitution that were voted on in Russia’s summer 2020 constitutional plebiscite: defining marriage as a union of one man and one woman; guaranteeing annual indexing of pensions to inflation; and resetting the sitting president’s (Putin’s) count toward his term limit.
Intervention Start Date
2021-04-26
Intervention End Date
2021-05-14

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The outcome variable is a binary variable coded 1 for people who answer ‘yes’ when asked how they would most likely vote if a new plebiscite were held now on the exact same set of amendments as was voted on in summer 2020, with all others coded 0.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The outcomes of primary interest are the differences in the average value on the dependent variable produced by the control subsample and the three treatment groups.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey agency VCIOM selects phone numbers from a national database at random by a computer within primary sampling units that are identified to produce a nationally representative sample of the adult population, following VCIOM’s standard sample design. Analogous techniques are used to generate samples representative of each of six Russian regions. The VCIOM interviewer then calls the selected phone numbers, choosing one member of the household. Interviews will be conducted by phone.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization of treatment assignments will be accomplished by VCIOM using the randomization function in the software SurveyStudio.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200 adult residents of two constituent regions of the Russian Federation.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 300 respondents per arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
George Washington University Committee on Human Research, Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2021-04-01
IRB Approval Number
NCR213455
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis+Plan+-+LegitRuss+Const+20210415.docx

MD5: 8c6846af1c6cc57caa54e4d2d41184a7

SHA1: e332dfa368f0590795866bfac50037bd99b1d2c9

Uploaded At: April 18, 2021

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials