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Abstract
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In the context of our research we will use the terminology fake or false news (FN, hereafter) as synonyms, with the meaning of news containing information that provides an inaccurate and incorrect description of facts.
The project aims to answer the following question: Do individuals have accurate beliefs about their ability to discern true and false news?
Holding inaccurate beliefs about own FN detection ability may have a variety of consequences. In particular, it can impact on the perceived magnitude of exposure to fake news and, more importantly, on the way an individual assesses the veracity of the news he, or she, is exposed to. Moreover, people may be more susceptible to fake news than they actually believe and their beliefs about own sensitivity to FN exposure, as well as ideological views, may impact their ability to discern the truth from false information. Furthermore, imprecise beliefs about own sensitivity to false information may have non-negligible effects on individual economic behavior, as well as aggregate welfare.
We employ a representative sample of the US population to conduct a survey with an incentivized fake news detection task.
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After
According to recent surveys, despite considering made-up news more problematic than terrorism, illegal immigration, racism or sexism, the vast majority of Americans feel confident in their ability to detect fake news. However, the literature in economics and psychology shows that people hold motivated beliefs about self and ego-relevant aspects, ranging from IQ to attractiveness, which typically lead the average person to exhibit overconfidence about own abilities or characteristics. Motivated by this evidence, our aim is to answer the following question: Do individuals have accurate beliefs about their ability to discern true and false news? Imprecise beliefs about own sensitivity to false news may have non-negligible effects on individual economic behavior, as well as aggregate welfare. To this end, we employ a representative sample of the US population to conduct a survey with an incentivized fake news detection task. This allows us to estimate people's prior beliefs and actual ability to correctly assess the accuracy of the information content of the news presented to them. We also explore whether prior beliefs and actual fake news detection ability are predicted by individual characteristics (e.g. income, education, cognitive reflection) and the intensity of social media use. Finally, we study whether subjects update beliefs, change fake news detection performance, as well as economic decisions, in response to a signal about own true fake news detection ability.
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Last Published
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April 28, 2021 10:27 AM
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April 28, 2021 12:37 PM
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Primary Outcomes (End Points)
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Estimate people's prior beliefs and actual ability to correctly assess the accuracy of the information content of the news presented to them (Fake News detection ability)
Explore whether prior beliefs and actual Fake News detection ability are predicted by individual characteristics (e.g., income, education, etc.) and the intensity of social media use and addiction
Study whether subjects update beliefs, change FN detection performance, as well as economic decisions, in response to a signal about own true Fake News detection ability
Explore people's prior belief and attitudes towards socially and economically relevant domains (e.g., vaccination, climate change) and test the causal effect of FN exposure on the beliefs and attitudes within these domains.
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After
Estimate people's prior beliefs and actual ability to correctly assess the accuracy of the information content of the news presented to them (Fake News detection ability).
Explore whether prior beliefs and actual Fake News detection ability are predicted by individual characteristics (e.g., income, education, etc.) and the intensity of social media use and addiction.
Study whether subjects update beliefs, change FN detection performance, as well as economic decisions, in response to a signal about own true Fake News detection ability.
Explore people's prior belief and attitudes towards socially and economically relevant domains (e.g., vaccination, climate change) and test the causal effect of FN exposure on the beliefs and attitudes within these domains.
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Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
This is an incentivized online survey with a control group and 1 treatment group. In the control group, subjects make a fake news detection task and give prior and posterior beliefs about their ability to discern true from false news. The treatment mimic the control group, except that once subjects have completed half of the fake news detection task and we elicit their task specific prior belief about their ability to detect fake news they receive a signal about their actual ability. In all treatments, we collet information on socio-demographic, political orientation and individual characteristics. We run a the survey for the two groups (with different subjects) with and without showing the source of the news for which participants have to assess the veracity.
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After
This is an incentivised online survey with a control group and one treatment arm. In the control group, subjects carry out a fake news detection task and we estimate prior and posterior beliefs about their ability to discern true and false news in the task. The treatment mimics the control group, except that subjects receive a signal about their true fake news detection ability while performing the task. In both treatments, subjects are also randomly assigned to two groups: one group sees the source of the news, while the other does not. Finally, for all subjects, we collect information on individual characteristics, ranging from socio-demographics and political orientation, to cognitive sophistication.
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