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Paper Abstract
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Policymakers routinely make high-stakes decisions of which programs to fund. Assessing the value of a
program is difficult and may be affected by bounded rationality. In an experiment with policymakers
in the U.S. government, we find that respondents’ valuations of programs are inelastic with respect
to the program’s impact. A complementary experiment among a representative sample of the general
public reveals even more pronounced inelasticity in a population less familiar with making program
funding decisions. We design and test two portable decision aids, one which presents two alternative
programs side-by-side rather than in isolation and another which translates total program cost into
an annual cost per person impacted. The decision aids increase elasticity by 0.20 on a base of 0.33
among policymakers and by 0.21 on a base of 0.21 among the general public. We provide evidence
that cognitive noise—noisy assessments of complex inputs—is a mechanism that can help explain the
observed inelasticity of program valuation with respect to impact.
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Paper Citation
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Toma, M. and E. Bell. 2021. "Understanding and Improving Policymakers' Sensitivity to Program Impact," Working Paper.
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Paper URL
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qkStG3Y-FZvizfUzQwUP2GkD7hzMlM-I/view?usp=sharing
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