Probability Weighting when Sampling

Last registered on June 04, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Probability Weighting when Sampling
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007766
Initial registration date
June 04, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 04, 2021, 2:08 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2020-03-01
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We analyse how risky choice responds to variation in posterior probability and how such responses may explain gaps in the weighting of small probabilities when they are described vs sampled.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Klingebiel, Ronald. 2021. "Probability Weighting when Sampling." AEA RCT Registry. June 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7766-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Choices between two lotteries, one safe, one risky
Intervention Start Date
2021-06-13
Intervention End Date
2021-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
As-If-Underweighting Choices
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
As-if-Underweighting Choices are (a) the safe money machine when the high outcome of the risky money-machine is rare,or (b) the risky machine when the low outcome of the risky money-machine is rare (e.g.,Hertwig et al., 2004; Hertwig & Erev, 2009).

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
3 treatments, one with fully specified probabilities and two with sample information only (described and experienced). The first two treatments are yoked to the choice-set statistics of the third treatment.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization is by order of arrival to experiment URL
Randomization Unit
individuals are randomly assigned to sessions
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
240
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
80 subjects per treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Frankfurt School IRB
IRB Approval Date
2020-04-20
IRB Approval Number
na
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials