Probability Weighting when Sampling
Last registered on June 04, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Probability Weighting when Sampling
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007766
Initial registration date
June 04, 2021
Last updated
June 04, 2021 2:08 PM EDT
Location(s)

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Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Other Primary Investigator(s)
Additional Trial Information
Status
In development
Start date
2020-03-01
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We analyse how risky choice responds to variation in posterior probability and how such responses may explain gaps in the weighting of small probabilities when they are described vs sampled.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Klingebiel, Ronald. 2021. "Probability Weighting when Sampling." AEA RCT Registry. June 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7766-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Choices between two lotteries, one safe, one risky
Intervention Start Date
2021-06-13
Intervention End Date
2021-06-30
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
As-If-Underweighting Choices
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
As-if-Underweighting Choices are (a) the safe money machine when the high outcome of the risky money-machine is rare,or (b) the risky machine when the low outcome of the risky money-machine is rare (e.g.,Hertwig et al., 2004; Hertwig & Erev, 2009).
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
3 treatments, one with fully specified probabilities and two with sample information only (described and experienced). The first two treatments are yoked to the choice-set statistics of the third treatment.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization is by order of arrival to experiment URL
Randomization Unit
individuals are randomly assigned to sessions
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
240
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
80 subjects per treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
Frankfurt School IRB
IRB Approval Date
2020-04-20
IRB Approval Number
na
Analysis Plan

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