Group-Biased Risk Perception
Last registered on June 17, 2021


Trial Information
General Information
Group-Biased Risk Perception
Initial registration date
June 16, 2021
Last updated
June 17, 2021 2:36 PM EDT

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Primary Investigator
University of Pittsburgh
Other Primary Investigator(s)
Additional Trial Information
In development
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
This study investigates how the grouping structure of information about others' outcomes in a risky environment with uncertain prospects affects individuals' beliefs about their own prospects. In particular, the study is focused on environments where an individual's risk is not meaningfully predicted by their group. Applying insights from prior literature on in-group/out-group biases in behavioral economics, the underlying hypothesis of this study is that individuals overweight information about in-group others relative to information about out-group others as a heuristic, even in the absence of a plausible reason to believe prospects are determined by group. As a result, with sufficiently small samples of information, individuals may have incorrect beliefs about their own prospects which lead them to take on a suboptimal amount of risk relative to their own preferences. Applications to health and environmental topics will be discussed.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Hyde, Kelly. 2021. "Group-Biased Risk Perception." AEA RCT Registry. June 17.
Experimental Details
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Choice between a sure payment and a lottery with uncertain prospects (i.e., a context-specific measure of risk preferences)
- A belief elicitation about one's own prospects in that lottery based on the information they receive.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The lottery with uncertain prospects is defined to participants as follows: they have been randomly assigned an integer value X from the uniform distribution between 0 and 100, as has everyone else in the same session. The choice is done through a price list with a gradually increasing sure payment between $0 and $5 and the lottery, which is an X% (unknown to the participant) chance of earning $5 and a (1-X)% chance of earning nothing. The choice endpoint is their switching point between the sure payment and the lottery. The belief elicitation is about the X they have been assigned.
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Individuals in the study will complete multiple experimental stages. The first stage is randomly assigned between 3 possibilities, each of which is designed to prime a particular type of group identification among participants. The second stage is a price list of choices between a lottery with uncertain prospects (a probability of winning unknown to the participant) and a gradually increasing sure payment. The third stage is a traditional allocator game used to measure the individual's degree of in-group bias.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
The stage 1 is randomized at the lab session level. The chance of winning the lottery with uncertain prospects is randomized at the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
288 individuals divided into 9 sessions of 32 participants each, with 8 groups (4 of men and 4 of women) in each session
Sample size: planned number of observations
288 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
96 participants in each possible stage 1 (gender differences questionnaire, real effort task, or nothing)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB Name
University of Pittsburgh Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number