Overconfidence and Income Inequality

Last registered on March 09, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Overconfidence and Income Inequality
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007852
Initial registration date
June 23, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 25, 2021, 1:40 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
March 09, 2022, 8:24 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Daiki Kishishita
Affiliation
Tokyo University of Science
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Atsushi Yamagishi
PI Affiliation
Princeton University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Tomoko Matsumoto
PI Affiliation
Tokyo University of Science
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-06-25
End date
2021-07-06
Keywords
Electoral, Welfare
Additional Keywords
Preferences for redistribution, Overconfidence, Political ideology, Political distrust, Meritocracy
JEL code(s)
D31; D72; H23; H24
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Overconfident people who do not earn what they think they can may attribute this cognitive gap to the unfairness of the economy and thereby favor public redistribution when they realize their cognitive gap. To test this hypothesis, we will conduct an online survey experiment in the US.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kishishita, Daiki, Tomoko Matsumoto and Atsushi Yamagishi. 2022. "Overconfidence and Income Inequality." AEA RCT Registry. March 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7852-1.2000000000000002
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We randomly assign the treatment emphasizing each respondent’s self-perception of the income-ability gap./
Intervention Start Date
2021-06-25
Intervention End Date
2021-07-06

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Perception on the unfairness of economy
2. Preferences for reducing income inequality and preferences for government intervention
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct an online survey experiment in the US in which we assign the treatment emphasizing each respondent’s self-perception of the income-ability gap randomly.
Experimental Design Details
After the treatment described above, we ask a set of questions regarding perceptions on the unfairness of economy, preferences for reducing income inequality, and support for the government's interventions.

In our analysis, we focus on the overconfident samples whose self-evaluations of their ability were above the location of their income. By analyzing the treatment effect on the overconfident people, we identify the causal effect of realizing the income-ability gap.
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The treatment is not clustered.
Sample size: planned number of observations
4500 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2250 individuals control, 2250 individuals treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
The prevalence of overconfidence is widely documented in the literature. Based on this, suppose that 1500 individuals are overconfident among each group. Significance level: 5%, Power: 80% For a binary outcome where the average of the control is 0.5, the minimum detectable effect size is around 0.05 (5%).
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Institutional Review Board at Tokyo University of Science
IRB Approval Date
2020-12-04
IRB Approval Number
20001
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

pre_analysis_plan

MD5: 6dc652e4209566f8fd7dbf4152261c09

SHA1: 74ca320ac4da6ec66369de1f105c27b12129a6bf

Uploaded At: June 23, 2021

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
July 05, 2021, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
July 05, 2021, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials